LA Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens – 2.5 O/U 41.5
You really have to give John Harbaugh some credit here for how he finished this season. Not only does he now have the best defense in yards per game, he also now has a top 10 offense. The way this team runs the ball has been extremely solid with dual threat Lamar Jackson at the helm. This Ravens team already beat the Chargers once and the question is can they do it again? Numbers-wise Baltimore really has the upper hand here. On the other side of the coin LA has been a great away team this year at an amazing 7-1 ATS beating teams like the Chiefs and Steelers on the road. Anthony Lynn should be smart enough to play contain and make Lamar Jackson beat them with his arm. Jackson is way to dangerous of a runner to just straight up blitz him. In saying that I still do not trust Lynn to do the right thing and on the other side I do not trust Lamar Jackson to not turn over the ball to pick a side here. My numbers have this game Baltimore 24 to LA 20.5 and because of this I think even though both defenses are very good, there is some value in the over. Here is a sneaky thing about the Baltimore Ravens. They actually average the most plays per game at 70.9 which is over 3 plays higher than New England who is second most at 67.1.
Over 41.5 points
Indianapolis vs Houston -1.5 O/U 49
A lot could be said how Houston has finished the season at 11-5 and the same could be said on how great Andrew Luck has looked with the colts coming in second in passing yards. Both teams benefited from having the easiest schedules this year in football. The Colts hit a bad patch of games during the mid season due to many injuries but if you look at the report now they are quite healthy while the Texas just lost Demarious Thomas, LB Brian Peters and CB Kavon Webster with 3 other important guys questionable for this game. If everyone was healthy, I have the Colts about a 1 point favorite on a neutral field meaning the Texans should be favored by 2 at home but now with the injuries you have to make this game more of a pickem and I also think that the colts have a coaching and momentum advantage here. I do not think too much of coach O’brien for the Texans and I think if they win, it would have to be all from DeShawn Watson and the D. I have this game 23-23. Being that defense Travels and the Texans still have JJ Watt and Clowney, I tend to really like the under in this game.
Texans vs Colts Under 49
Seattle vs Dallas -1 O/U 43
These teams are literally the same teams stat wise. Both are almost exact on offense at around 350 yards per game and both on Defense allowing about the same. You wonder how these teams made the playoffs matching in yards per play like this. Seattle has had a great finish to the season making the playoffs and all while Dallas was kinda up and down. Both teams run the ball very well as we have seen. I think that these teams are very dependent on their home fields and can be a much different team away. We just recently saw Seattle dominate KC at home yet they lost to San Francisco Away and we saw Dallas dominate New Orleans at home while getting shut out in Indi. I have this game from a numbers perspective Dallas winning 23 to 22 but that factors in the whole body of work. Dallas is a much better team at home at 5-2-1 ATS while Seattle is a modest 3-3-1 ATS away. I also really like what Cowboys tight end Blake Jarwin showed last week who had 3 Tds and being a new weapon for Dak. The Seahawks are a little more banged up than the Cowboys on the injury report. The coaching advantage definitely goes to Pete Carrol here but this is also a revenge spot for big D so I have to reluctantly go with Dallas -1.
Dallas -1
Philadelphia vs Chicago -5.5 O/U 41
This number has been bouncing around 5 or 6 because most power ratings have the Bears about 2 points better than the Eagles. What can you say about the Nick Foles led Eagles? This is a very scary team beating the Rams and Texans on the road before shutting out the Redskins last week to make the playoffs. Both coach Nagy and Peterson know each other well from being in Kansas City under Andy Reid. As a matter of fact they are buddies and there is probably no other coach that knows each other better. Now this actually should favor both teams. Both have great D coordinators with Jim Schwartz and Vic Fangio. The Bears are definitely healthier here on D especially in the defensive backs but the Eagles are no slouches against the run ranking 8th and trending up. The Eagles definitely have been here before so they might end up being more confident on offense here with Nick Foles at the helm than first time Bears playoff QB Mitch Trubisky and he could be more prone to mistakes. The kicker here is that crazy good pass rush Chicago has. Foles has some rib injuries and that hurts so he might be wanting to get rid of the ball pretty quickly. From a pure numbers perspective my Algorithm has this game the Bears winning 24 to 19.5 so this spread is right on from that perspective. Mitch has to have a decent game here and since the Eagles are decimated in the secondary he should be able to make a few things happen. The fact that the Eagles have been here before with Foles worries me a bit and makes me lean to take the points..
Lean Philadelphia +5.5
