Believe it or not we are only eight weeks out until August 4th, when the NFL kicks off it’s preseason “Hall of Fame Game. No better time in that eight week span for me to break down every division weekly and find best future bet team to win their division. We had an awesome season last year, but we are in a business of “What have you done for me lately?”. The past is the past, time to regroup and dial to not only obtain the same success as last season, but surpass it!
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AFC EAST
Current Odds to win division, per Betonline.ag
Bills -200 Dolphins +325 Patriots +550 Jets +2000
Buffalo Bills -200:
Key Free Agency Additions: Von Miller, Shaq Lawson, Jamison Crowder, Duke Johnson, OJ Howard, DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle, Rodger Saffold, and Jordan Phillips.
2022 Draft Picks: Round 1, pick 30: CB Kaiir Elam, Round 2, pick 63: RB James Cook, Round 3, pick 89: LB Terrel Bernard, Round 5, pick 148: WR Khalil Shakir, Round 6, pick 180: P Matt Araiza, Round 6, pick 185: CB Christian Benford, Round 6, pick 209: OL Luke Tenuta.
Strength of Schedule: Tied 12th per CBSsports
It is no surprise for anyone the Bills are rather large favorites to win their division coming in at -200. They made a huge statement during Free Agency not only bringing in Veteran LB Von Miller, but making a huge push to bolster both their offensive and defensive lines with seasoned talent. They combatted that with filling in low cost reliable skill position talent in the likes of Jamison Crowder, Duke Johnson, and OJ Howard. Do not sleep on these pick ups. Now having the ability to run two tight end sets with Dawson Knox and OJ Howard. Duke Johnson adds a nice wrinkle in the back field as Singletary was starting to come along late in the season and Jamison Crowder replacing Cole Beasley in the slot in my opinion is an upgrade in that position. These aren’t flashy signings, but I believe they are the cherry on top of an already potent and “ready to win now team”. It is Super Bowl or bust for the Bills this season.
My big question mark is we know the Bills are an elite teams, but they stumbled to win their division last year finishing one game above the Pats at 11-6. Yes, they have added key positions and upgrades this offseason… but so has every other team…
ENTIRE DOCUMENT DIDN’T SAVE AFTER THIS POINT SO WILL GIVE A BRIEF SYNAPSE OF WHAT I WROTE, MY APOLOGIES…WILL HAVE A MORE SOUND BREAKDOWN FOR NFC EAST NEXT WEEK
Miami Dolphins +325:
Huge blockbuster deal involving Tyreek Hill, along with RB signings of Edmonds and Mostert. Dolphins had to make a splash (get it) during free agency due to only having 4 draft picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. A lot of questions whether Tua is going to be the Dolphins franchise QB going forward and if he has the talent to take them to the next level. With new coach Mike McDaniel coming into his first season as head coach, he is hoping to build off of the Dolphins impressive 8-1 run to close out their 2021 season. With the additions at depth in RB and bringing in former Raiders FB Ingold it will be no surprise if Miami looks to rely heavily on the run game controlling the clock and possessions. This will greatly help alleviate the pressure off of Tua who has shown to struggle with passing accurately consistently. The great thing about a receiver like Tyreek Hill that is so talented and dynamic a 5 yard slant high percentage throw and catch, can be just as effective as a 50 yard go route that has to be put in a bucket. Dolphins have a tremendous amount of upside this season. Will they be the 1-7 team that started 2021 or the 8-1 team that finished.
New England Patriots +550:
Patriots had 10 draft picks and chose to reach hard in the first round drafting Offensive Guard Cole Strange. Many experts had him going much later, but time will tell if this was an epic reach… or a key offensive piece for the future. Patriots had a typical Patriots free agency, nothing too flashy or headline grabbing, but a key emphasis on bolstering their Secondary. No surprise after all Bill Belichick prides himself on his defensive mastermind schemes and game plans. At the end of the day that is what ultimately keeps the Patriots relevant at this stage without Tom Brady. For me I am not completely sold on Mac Jones and year 2 will certainly dictate if he is the real deal franchise type of QB or just a game manager trying his best to not screw it up.
New York Jets +2000:
Jets had a phenomenal draft picking up coveted Admad ‘Sauce’ Gardner at the CB position along with Garrett Wilson at WR position to name a few. I really loved their free agency signing of CJ Uzomah from the Bengals. Let’s be honest Jets have not had a decent TE in years, Ryan Griffin certainly has not been getting it done. Uzomah has shown he is the type of player that can make game changing plays and take over a game, and that is very hard to find in the TE position. I think the Jets are moving in the right direction and had an extremely good offseason. Year two will be very telling for Zach Wilson and his development. The Jets are a very young team and I think they are building something special, they just aren’t ready yet.
Conclusion: FADE
Bills are clearly the division favorite at -200, but I am not too certain I can 100% trust them. We saw them play down to lesser competition during the season, they have a harder strength of schedule, and the Dolphins are a huge X factor to possibly make this a harder task. At -200 to tie up a bet that won’t close out until January 8th, I think we can find better value elsewhere. For those who love upside and value…. no shame an thinking about sprinkling a little bit on the Dolphins at +325.
