What’s up everyone?! The final four teams clash in the final week of pro football before the big dance – who comes out on top? What’s the best way to approach betting these games? Check out my thoughts, below!
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Bengals/Chiefs over 54.5 (-110), 2.2 units: Here we go with another over but it just seems too obvious (which actually makes it a little scary but, I digress). The Kansas City defense has improved in the second half of the season; there’s no doubt about it. We have them as a top 10 unit in the final 9 weeks. They’ve found ways to limit run games, they can be sneaky good against the pass, and they have dynamic athletes like Chris Jones who can get to the quarterback. The defense for KC hasn’t been “a problem” like it was in years past and I don’t think it’ll be the problem heading into Sunday. The real issue for KC’s defense has nothing to do with them– it’s the talent and disposition of a young Bengals’ offense. The tenacity of Joe Burrow is unquestionable at this point. In week 17, he threw for 446 yards and 4 TDs against the Chiefs, overcoming an 11 point deficit at home, without a run game, and while facing a tremendous amount of pressure for most of the contest. On Sunday, the Chiefs may be without arguably their most important defensive player, the “Honey Badger,” Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu suffered a concussion in the first quarter against the Bills and it’s still unclear if he’ll play. Watch for his status– Mathieu is not only a skilled defender, he’s the leader of that defense. The Chiefs could lose considerable poise when they need it most if he can’t gear up. It also probably doesn’t help that KC face a quarterback who leads the NFL in completion percentage… buckle up!
Both of these squads are better on run defense than they are against the pass, ranked in the bottom third of the league in most of the latter categories. And even if Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes face a ton of pressure in this game, it’s unlikely they can be contained for all 60 minutes. The best talent on the field is on offense: Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Burrow, Mixon, Chase – star players make big plays, and often these games come down to a barrage of big moments down the stretch.
This game should be a ton of fun. Burrow and Mahomes are built similarly– they have poise in big moments, cannon arms, and they’re creative and aggressive down field. Just like last week’s Bills/Chiefs game, where we cashed big on a 3 star over play, the over appears to be the best play again in the AFC Championship. Life’s too short to bet the under – I’m on these two explosive offenses to put on a show. And let’s be honest– do you really believe these two stud QBs can be limited to under 30 points? Didn’t think so.
49ers/Rams 1Q under 9.5 (-130), 2.6 units: When most people talk about these teams, they talk about the offensive stars, and for good reason. The Rams boast some of the most exciting talent in the NFL– a two-headed beast in Sony Michel and the resurgent Cam Akers at RB, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. at WR, Tyler Higbee, who’s climbing the TE ranks, and of course Matthew Stafford. In his first year with the Rams, Stafford fought adversity and some interception-laden stretches of the season to lead his team into the NFC Championship game. Only one test remains for them to reach the Super Bowl– the team they just can’t beat, the 49ers. San Francisco has all-world offensive talent of their own: Jimmy Garoppolo, who just wins and wins, TE Greg Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel, and arguably the best offensive tackle in the NFL: Trent Williams. Both of these units are exceptional and it’s not hard to imagine plenty of points in this game. I just don’t think those points will come very often in the first 15 minutes.
If you watched the 49ers on defense last week, it’s likely that you saw a ton of plays made by Fred Warner. The 6’3″ linebacker was everywhere on the field last Sunday, chasing Aaron Rodgers, forcing a fumble, and earning 6 solo tackles. Nick Bosa is a well-known QB-wrecker, and the Niners have an unsung secondary that only allows 207 pass yards through the air. The Rams defense is well-documented. Led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, the Rams have one of the best all-around units in the NFL. Last week, Von Miller was a wrecking ball, making one big play after another against the legendary Tom Brady. He was one of the biggest reasons why the Rams prevailed, and he looks primed to have another big game against Jimmy G. and the surging 49ers.
In the last contest, only 3 points were scored in the 1st quarter. On the year, the Rams and Niners average 8.7 combined points in the first 15 minutes of play. This is a division game with two teams that know each other really well. More points may come as the game goes on, both squads certainly have the potential, but expect a conservative battle in the trenches as both teams approach cautiously. I love the under in the 1st.
