Tennessee vs Kansas City -7 O/U 53
This game can literally go two ways. Kansas City is obviously a passing powerhouse. They average a huge 283 passing yards per game and the only time that they really run the ball is to keep other teams honest. The fact that they have a pretty good defense now really helps this one-dimensional system. Many of Houston’s points came from messed up special teams and a few large plays. They were virtually shut down after the first quarter. In Saying that, Kansas City’s weakness is definitely against the run allowing 4.9 yards per attempt. This stat bodes very badly for the Chiefs facing a force like Derek Henry and the Tennessee Titans who average 5.1 yards per rushing attempt and rank 5th in rush DVOA efficiency. The second scary thing is that even though Tannahill threw less than 100 yards their last 2 playoff games and the team only averaged only 208 passing yards per game, they still have a huge 7.8 yards per attempt ranking top 4 and they rank 6th in passing DVOA. In saying all that I still lean to the Chiefs here and this is why. From a power ratings standpoint I have the Chiefs winning by 8 points due to this great home field advantage. Also, I do not see the Titans stopping the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes from scoring points here. We have seen the Titans work from a lead multiple times due to playing a bad and burned out Patriots offense and a bunch of mistakes made by the Ravens defense. The Titans were able to capitalize on playing some bad defenses down the stretch which helped pad Tannahill’s stats. Mahomes can also run the ball very well as we see every week which has giving them another dimension in the run game boosting their overall rushing DVOA to 14th in the league. Lastly, we haven’t seen Tennessee have to come from behind in a while or at least since playing the Saints at home and that did not work out too well for them. I think this game has a great live betting potential in the fact that Kansas City will not let off the gas if they score first and Tennessee can be quite one dimensional if they are behind. If Tennessee scores first, they can run a lot of play action and quite possibly put the Chiefs in a bad scenario if they start really stacking the box. I think large play on KC if they are up by 7 and the end of the first quarter at -10.5 ish and small play on Tennessee if they score first and up by 7 at +3.5 ish. The worst thing that could happen this game is Dee Ford lining up off-sides down the stretch like he did last year. I think that KC knows how close they were last year when they played the Patriots in this game and will end up with the W.
Lean KC -7 and Lean under 52
Prop: Patrick Mahomes has the most pass yards – 2 star premium shared (-140)
Green Bay vs San Francisco -7.5 O/U 45
Well that is a high spread for this total but I think it is pretty much telling you what I have been saying all year. Green Bay is much worse on the road then they are at home. We saw this from my last handicap when they went to San Francisco and lost 29. The 49ers have a net 2.5 yard per play advantage on the Packers and it is because they have a HUGE net negative net -1.1 yards per play on the road making them a -.3 yard per play total. Going by the splits, my Algorithm has this game Green Bay 16 and 49ers 25.5 which doesn’t exactly scream betting San Francisco until we learn more about the injury report. The more likely score at these numbers is Niners 28 and Packers 17 so I really can’t bet the under here. What I do know is that you may be able to get a nice team total here on San Francisco if that number is under 27 points. The 49ers are not coached by Pete Caroll so you can expect them to actually try and take away Devonte Adams with Richard Sherman and Safety Jimmie Ward over the top. Azeez Al-Shaair will be guarding Jimmy Graham and I expect him to be less effective. If the Packers expect to do well this game, they will have to go to their number 2 and 3 wide receivers such as Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdez-Scantling and just hope that they can step up in a big game. The 49ers are a much healthier team on defense now and we saw what they did in the trenches vs Cousins and the Vikings offensive line. The Packers also give up 4.7 rushing yards per attempt so I expect the 49ers slew of RBs to have a great game here. The 49ers average 4.6 yards per rushing attempt and It certainly will be much better then the Seahawks rushing dismal performance. A key stat in my mind here is that Aaron Rodgers is 0-5 in playoff games when he has faced that same team during the regular season.
Lean San Francisco -7.5
Teaser – San Francisco -1 with Kansas City -1.5 – 4 star premium shared
