Tampa Bay vs Green Bay -3.5 O/U 51
The Battle of the Bays! This is going to be a very gun matchup with these two high powered quarterbacks. These teams played before and it was the Buccaneers only win vs a team .500 or better until last week. I think that the weather is the first thing that we have to look at this game. Light wind and possible snow is always in the cards in Green Bay. Lets look at some of the respected rankings from football outsiders. DVOA has Tampa number 2 and Green Bay number 3. I disagree with having Tampa Bay so high but Brady in the playoffs is a whole different animal. From a power ratings perspective, I have this game Green Bay -5.75 due to a great home field. Ask any Detroit Lion fan, no team has a better home field advantage than Green Bay. I have Green Bay -2.5 my algorithm but I also think that Green Bay left a lot of points on the board when playing some of the weaker teams.
Let’s look at some strengths and weaknesses. Green Bay’s weakness is against the run allowing 4.6 yards per rush but Tampa Bay only ranks 23rd in the lea gue at 4.1 yards per rush and 27th at 99 yards per game. I will say that Tampa Bay has been running the ball better lately. Tampa’s Strength is against the run although Kamara had 85 yards rushing last game at 4.7 per attempt. Green Bay runs the ball well at 4.8 yards per rush. One thing to note is that Via Vea is eligible to return from injury this week which is interesting. Tampa’s weakness is their pass defense allowing 246 passing yards per game while Green Bay can certainly throw the ball well with Rodgers ranking 10th in passing yards per game at 259 yards per game and 2nd in yards per attempt at 7.8. This shows you that Green Bay could have more yards if they didn’t run clock in the 4th quarter. Tampa’s Strength is obviously the pass with Tom Brady and Green Bay does have a better than average pass defense allowing 11th best 6.5 yards passing per attempt but the question is if Green Bay can get to Tom Brady. Green Bay ranks 26th in quarterback pressure rate at 20.9%.
One thing the Bucs do well is getting to the quarterback, and they rank a nice 3rd in pressure rate ranking and 4th in sacks. Rodgers seems to play well under pressure more this year than any year so there’s that. The one advantage that Tampa might have is that I will say is that they have more weapons than Green Bay and there is something about their matchup last time that really confused the Packers. I think it was kind of a fluke where everyone has a bad game from time to time but it’s worth mentioning. When guys like Scottie Miller and Tyler Johnson are making great plays then you have to be worried some.
The best play I think is the first half because Green Bay starts games out firing. I’ll grab Green Bay -2.5 1st half for 2.5 stars but I also like the prop betting market here. Prop Plays will be Leonard Fournette over receiving yards since Green Bay has a good Pass D with Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson in the slot. Tampa will throw the ball to him. Believe it or not, he catches more balls than people think. Prop Play will be Robert Tonyan scores a TD. He has 11 Tds this year which is tied with Arron Jones. I might take him over his yardage as well. I don’t like Tampa’s linebackers in coverage.
Green Bay 1st half -2.5 stars and Full game -3.5 at 2 stars
PROPS: Robert Tonyan scores a TD -111 – 1.5 star premium shared
Buffalo vs Kansas City -3 O/U 53.5
- This should be a great game of 2 high powered offenses and pretty average defenses.
- This game already happened once with the Bills losing at home to Kansas City 26-17. The Chiefs covered and the game went under mainly because of Clyde Edwards Helair rushing 161 yards. With Edwards-Helaire banged up, Can Damien Williams step right in.
- There is some speculation that Mahomes might not play this game due to his concussion but I would have to think that unless Mahomes is half braindead, he will be starting this game.
- Let’s look at the metrics. Both teams are somewhat weak against the run with the bills allowing 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and the Chiefs allowing 4.5. The Chiefs run the ball much better however at 4.5 rushing yards per attempt to the Bills 4.1 so Kansas City with a nice advantage here and especially because Mahomes is the best QB in the league. If the Bills cheat up to stop the run, they could get torched. I think they will cheat up being that it worked vs the Ravens.
- Both teams pass defenses are pretty close giving up about 233 yards per game but Buffalo has a slight advantage at 6.4 passing yards per attempt to KC’s 6.7.
- The Bills QB pressure rate is only 21% while the Chiefs is at 24% but I don’t think that is a big enough difference and Mahomes is the best against the Blitz as it is. Partly because he extends the play with his feet an Kelcey seems to know when that happens and he always hooks right into a place where Mahomes knows where he will be.
- My Algorithm has this game 26.5 to 26.5 and it’s mostly due to the fact that the Bills are more efficient on offense at 12.9 yards per point to Kansas City’s 14.3, but I think that both of these teams are very capable of putting up plenty of points. Both of these teams have been leading in the 4th quarter a lot this year. KC did also get back doored a lot but still won the game without covering.
- My power ratings has Kansas City 2.5 points better on a neutral field so this spread should be around 5ish with a healthy Mahomes.
- My heart wants to bet the Bills and I really want them to win but my brain says to bet the Chiefs. I think there will be more points scored this game so if the weather holds up.
Kansas City -3 and Over 53.5 – 3 star premium play
Prop: Josh Allen over 40 rushing yards – .5 star premium shared
