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Commanders vs Eagles -6 O/U 47.5
This is a huge divisional game to see who goes to the super bowl. The weather will be a brisk 39 degrees with 9 mph winds. This season’s head to head record is 1-1 between these two great teams. The Commanders are 4th in offensive EPA. They are 4th in drop-back EPA and 4th in Rush EPA. The Eagles are 6th in offensive EPA. They are 8th in drop-back EPA and 1st in Rush EPA. The Commanders are 22nd in defensive EPA. They are 22nd in opponent pass EPA and 27th in opponent rush EPA. The Eagles are 3rd in defensive EPA. They are 3rd in opponent drop-back EPA and 2nd in opponent rush EPA. The great thing for the Eagles is that this team has a massive rushing advantage ranking 1st in rushing to the Commanders defense that ranks 27th in opponent rushing. I will however say that the Commanders have improved some as we saw in some key areas in their last two games. These teams recently played on December 22nd where the Commanders won the game 36-33 and out-gained the Eagles at 5.8 yards per play to 4.8 yards per play even though they lost the time of possession battle 36 to 24 minutes and the turnover ratio of 5-2. Back on Nov 14th, the Eagles beat the Commies by where they outgained them 6.2 yards per play to 4.2. I think that for this game, the Nakobe Dean injury factor to the Eagles is massive here, and especially when trying to stop an agile running quarterback like Jayden Daniels. This spread should be 4.
Props: The Commanders ranked number 1 against running backs receiving the ball allowing only 22.8 rec yards per game, however, number 29th in allowing rushing yards per game averaging at 113 yards. Maybe a Saquon Prop for rushing or under for Receiving. Both the Commanders and the Eagles are great against tight ends ranking 1st for Philly and 5th for Washington in opponent tight end receiving yards. Tight End under for Washington is in play. The Eagles are the best defending against Wide Receivers only allowing 126.1 yards per game. Maybe some Commanders Rec under props is warranted. Maybe McLauren gets blanked by Darius Slay. We may want to look at Eckler receiving as well being that he torched the Eagles for 89 yards in their last matchup.
Plays: Commanders +6.5 or better – 1.5 stars – Prop – Austin Eckler over 26.5 rec yards – .5 stars
Kenneth Gainwell over 8.5 rushing yards -110 – 1 star (FD)
Bills vs Chiefs -2 O/U 47.5
Well, the big controversial game is here. The Temperature will be freezing with low wind. The NFL is so worried about it that they have pieces of 4 different officiating crews to ref the game, yet we really do not know how much that will matter. These two teams played back on November 18th where the Bill won at home 30 to 21 partially thanks to a huge 4th down run by Josh Allen. Let’s look at the numbers. The Bills are number 2 in offensive EPA. They are number 2 in drop-back EPA and number 3 in rush EPA. The Chiefs are number 9 in offensive EPA. They are number number 10 in drop-back EPA and 13 in Rush EPA. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills are number 11 in defensive EPA. They are number 20 in opponent drop-back EPA and number 6 in opponent rush EPA. The Chiefs are number 15 in defensive EPA. They are number 16 in opponent drop-back EPA and number 11 in opponent rush EPA. Looking at these numbers, it is pretty much a push on defense. On offense, the Bills are the much better team. The problem is that Patrick Mahomes has proven more clutch in playoff situations while the refs have always sealed the deal to help out the Chiefs in big situations. Sharp Football analysis analyzed the last four years, the Chiefs had significantly less penalties go against them. More info on this topic here. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/chiefs-referee-playoffs-penalties-2024-divisional-round/ I have this game at Pickem because of this.
Props: From a prop perspective, The Bills are the worst team giving up receiving yards to running backs at 44.1 per game, while the Chiefs are the fourth best at 23.6. Maybe some Pacheco/Hunt/Perine receiving overs might work but the problem is knowing which one will be in the game plan. Maybe some James Cook receiving unders could be warranted here, but the number is pretty low. The Chiefs rank 3rd in allowing rush yards to opponents at 70.4 per game, but that didn’t stop the bills from running all over the Ravens. If juiced than go bills unders. The Chiefs rank 24th in giving up rushing yards to the quarterback at 25.5. This sways me from taking Josh Allen under although his rushing prop is quite juiced. I think the Chiefs should be ready for that. Both teams are average or better against Wide Receivers, but the Chiefs are worst against Tight ends giving up 70.1 receiving yards per game. Looking at a Dalton Kinkaid prop over. Keep an eye on Bills cornerback Christian Benford as he was concussed and could miss this game. If he is out, then I will look at some WR props for the Chiefs.
Lean Bills +2
Dalton Kinkaid over 32.5 rec yards – 1 star
Isaiah Pacheco over 4.5 rec yards – 1 star
Teaser: Commanders to +12 with Bills to +8 – 2.5 stars
