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San Francisco vs Philadelphia -2.5 O/U 45.5
This game has the two best teams in the NFC facing off to make it to the big show! I must say, I have been equally impressed for both teams on both sides of the ball. Lets break it down. Both teams are top 4 in EPA per play both on offense and defense. Looking on the ground, both teams run the ball very well averaging 4.7 yards per rush. On defense the 49ers only allow a league leading 3.4 yards per rush with Fred Warner leading the pack. The Eagles on the other hand may have a weakness allowing 4.7 yards per rush themselves and 23rd in opponent rush EPA. Advantage 49ers. Through the Air, both teams are equally powerful at about 7.7 yards per passing attempt, but on defense, San Francisco gives up 6.4 yards per attempt compared to the Eagles allowing 5.4 advantage Eagles. If you had noticed, Dak Prescott was able to march down the field against the 49ers and that is due to their mediocre pass rush only ranking 18th in pressure rate. The Eagles rank number two in pressure rate and that doesn’t bode well with a rookie quarterback for the 49ers. Both teams are at bottom two in strength of schedule, so no advantage there. Both teams are +1 net yards per play so no advantage there either. The path to the 49ers victory is clearly on the ground, and this is why you are seeing a lower total. The problem that would exist for San Francisco is if they get jumped, it would be very hard for a young quarterback to get back into this game. The Eagles may be bad against the run, but they tend to tighten up in the Red Zone ranking 11th in opponent TD percentage to San Francisco’s 19th. The 49ers have played some poor pass offenses and when they stepped up in class, the Raiders dropped 34 on them while the Chiefs blew them out at home. Both of these teams are pretty equal in total power. I have to give the coaching advantage to Kyle Shanahan, and I have to give the quarterback and home field advantage to the Eagles. The spread is right but the prop market is what I will attack. I think the Eagles continue to fly here and I have them winning 24-21.
Lean Eagles and the Under. San Fran is a great teaser leg if you can partner it with the dog when more info comes out on Mahomes.
Props: Miles Sanders under 51.5 rushing yards -115 – 1.5 stars
Jalen Hurts over 1.5 TD Passes – +110 – .5 stars
Kittle over 46.5 receiving yards – 1 star
Fun prop 1st TD Scorer: Kittle +1200, Watkins +4000, Gainwell +2000 – All .2 stars each
Cincinnati vs Kansas City +1 O/U 48
We must be blessed here because we also have the two best teams in the AFC facing each other this weekend. The elephant in the room is Patrick Mahomes high ankle sprain. I do not know if we will get much info on how it is truly affecting him, but he is going to play, and I have to assume that he is going to have so much tape on in, that it will be almost like wearing a cast. In saying that, the Bengals have won the last three matchups in this game and you have to give the quarterbacking edge to Joe Burrow based on the injury. On the ground, the Chiefs look to have a rushing advantage at 4.7 yards per rush to 3.9 for the Bengals, but much of that was their second leading rusher in QB Patrick Mahomes getting 6.8 yards per attempt. Both teams are probably at push at best in this category. Rushing defense favors the Bengals allowing 4.2 yards per rush to Kansas City at 4.5. From a passing perspective, the Chiefs have an advantage on offense at 7.7 yards per attempt to 6.9, but on defense the Bengals have tightened up allowing only 6.1 passing yards per attempt to the Chiefs at 6.6. This is where the Bengals need to shine and they can with guys like Chase, Higgens, Hurst, and Boyd. The Chiefs have a +1.1 net yards per play. Compare that with the Bengals at .1, you see a large differnence, but over the last 9 weeks of football, the Advanced stats have Cincinnati number for in EPA per play on offense with Kansas City at number one, while on defense, Cincinnati number six and Kansas City number 10. We also must factor in that Cincinnati’s strength of schedule ranks 3rd compared to Kansas City’s ranking 11th in that very disappointing AFC West. I think that the Mahomes mobility injury really hurts this Kansas City team and his team isn’t used to him staying in the Pocket. For these reasons, I like the Bengals. In saying that, I think that the over is in play because a hindered Mahomes is probably better than 75% of the starting NFL quarterbacks out there. The Chiefs and the Bengals are both 5 in yards per point.
Bengals -1 – 2 stars with the over 47 – 2.5 stars
Props: Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards – 1 star
JuJu Smith-Schuster under 48.5 receiving yards – .5 stars
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