Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 6-3 in the high participant Double-Ups. Taylor Heinecke was not the answer last week.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Patrick Mahomes, QB: $7,900. I’m not usually big on spending this much on a QB, but the weather has officially gotten colder across much of the country and that usually means a small drop-off in passing attacks even in the NFL. Andy Reid has this offense dialed in through the air with Mahomes averaging 2.5 Passing TDs and 375 yards per game across his last four contests. That’s against the Bills, Titans, 49ers and Raiders. Not exactly the worst NFL defenses. My only concern here is the Chiefs get up big early and turn to the running game more in the second half. We won’t see 68 pass attempts in this one.
David Montgomery, RB: $6,000. If there’s a game the Bears running game not named Justin Fields breaks out, this is it. Outside of facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers the Lions defense is allowing over 150 rushing yards per game, mostly to traditional rushing attacks. Montgomery only has more than 15 totes one time this year, but he should be heavily featured in the attack on Sunday and can hopefully find the endzone.
Saquon Barkley, RB: $8,600. Barkley has only touched the ball less than 20 times in a game twice on the season. Both in contests that the Giants were playing from behind more than a score. He is averaging over 20 FPPG in DK format. The Texans are the worst defense against the run and it is not close. They are allowing 180.6 yards per game on the ground. That’s more than 30 yards more per game than the Lions who are 31st against the run.
Christian Kirk, WR: $5,900. Kirk has 8.7 Targets per game over his last three contests. I expect the Jags to have to throw the ball to catch-up so look for some points especially in the second half. The Chiefs are 24th in passing yards allowed so there is opportunity here.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR: $6,000. With Mecole Hardman out I expect to see a little more from MVS and Skyy Moore, but mostly I expect it to mean extra targets for JuJu and Travis Kelce. While I can’t afford Kelce with this lineup build, I can get JuJu. I’d expect double digit targets, high yards and a score in this one from JuJu.
Rondale Moore, WR: $5,200. As teams have tried to roll more coverage to Deandre Hopkins the last two games, Rondale Moore has been the main benefactor in the passing game. He has 18 targets the last two weeks. He hauled in 15 for 161 yards and a score in those two games. The Rams have regressed to the middle of the pack in passing defense this year and are getting less pressure on opposing QBs averaging only two sacks per game. If Kyler Murray has time he’s deadly and not just in Call of Duty. Make sure Murray is playing as he does have a hamstring injury before you green light this play.
Tyler Higbee, TE: $3,600. Well the Rams get the Cardinals Sunday. The Rams do have Cooper Kupp, but the second option for them should be Higbee. This Cardinals defense just got steam rolled by Noah Fant last week and Higbee can run circles around him. The Cards are 31st in the league in fantasy points allowed to Tight Ends so this one is a no-brainer at this price.
Jarvis Landry, Flex: $4,500. Landry returns for the Saints at the same time as T.J. Watt does for the Steelers. If there’s one thing I know about the Steelers defense when Watt is healthy its that they will get to the QB. Landry typically plays from the slot, so I expect some quick patterns to keep the pressure off Andy Dalton.
Minnesota, DEF: $2,200. Needed to find some value here. The weather is 35 degrees with possible snow/sleet and 10-20 mph winds. Taking a flyer on the Vikings as I don’t think Josh Allen will play. While Case Keenum is certainly capable of putting up a decent game against this rough Vikings secondary, I don’t see a huge game from him. He also is prone to making the occasional mistake and turn the ball over.
