Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 7-5 in the high participant Double-Ups. The Chargers decided to run the ball against an awful pass defense last week which led to our loss.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Saturday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Geno Smith, QB: $5,800. Geno had his string of 5 straight 20+FPPG streak snapped last week against the elite 49ers defense. Your reward for that is a lowered salary for his match-up against the Chiefs who have allowed a league leading 30 Passing Touchdowns to opposing signal callers this year.
Derrick Henry, RB: $8,600. The Texans are allowing an NFL worst 167.5 rushing yards per game. The weather will be 15 degrees in Nashville on Saturday with 15mph winds. Less than ideal passing conditions. His last three starts vs the Texans he has 88 carries for 681 yards and 6 TDs. Looking for another 200+ yard effort Saturday.
J.K. Dobbins, RB: $5,800. Here’s another price I just don’t understand. With Lamar Jackson ruled out for Saturday the Ravens will again lean on the ground game against the Falcons. While Atlanta’s rushing defense hasn’t been awful they are certainly capable of giving up some yards on the ground. Dobbins is only averaging 14 carries over the 2 games since his return, but he’s put up over 120 yards in both contests on limited snaps with 8.8 yards per carry. I expect his workload to increase Saturday in the windy 13 degree weather in Baltimore.
D.K. Metcalf, WR: $7,100. Geno has to throw the ball to someone and D.K. has been his favorite target. He is averaging 10.5 targets, 7.5 catches and 86 yards over the last 4 weeks. He also has found the end-zone twice. He should see even more action with Tyler Lockett now sidelined.
D.J. Moore, WR: $5,500. Moore continues to excel with Sam Darnold under center. I understand that’s not saying much, but he’s gotten 58.8% of the air yards with Darnold at QB for the Panthers and that’s #1 in the NFL. With Darnold, Moore has actually ran more slot routes than before Darnold was the quarterback. He’s running almost 20% more of his routes from the slot with Darnold at QB, 68% of his total routes. The Lions are dead last in the NFL allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt in 2022. The Lions are also dead last in yards allowed to slot receivers as well. I’m on the over receiving yards prop here of 54.5 as well.
Darius Slayton, WR: $5,200. While Slayton has struggled some this season he hasn’t had the best match-ups. He’s come on the last two weeks where he has 11 catches on 15 targets. The Vikings Pass defense has been a problem all season long as they are one of just two teams to allow over 4,000 passing yards. The Vikings have allowed 45 or more points to the wide receiver position in four out of the last six weeks. With this game in the dome it could be one of the more pass friendly games on the ledger.
Juwan Johnson, TE: $3,800. Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry are both out for this one and the weather will be rough for downfield passing. Those factors should lead to more short targets for Johnson who outside of the 49ers game week 12 has produced top tier TE numbers since week 9. He has five touchdowns in his last four games and is targeted on over 23% of his routes since week 8. The Browns give up 11.8 yards per catch to tight ends and have allowed 14 TE touchdowns this season.
D’Andre Swift, Flex: $5,500. Swift and Jamaal Williams continue to split time in the backfield with Swift getting almost all the snaps in passing situations. Well take that passing game edge to the lineup card and hope the Panthers defense can put the Lions in multiple 3rd down situations on Satuday.
Cowboys, DST: $2,600. The Eagles are #3 in offense this season, but Jalen Hurts won’t play on Saturday. The Cowboys are 8th in total defense and tops in the league in takeaways and 2nd in the league in sacks. While Gardner Minshew has proven a capable backup in the NFL, he takes sacks on a high percentage of his dropbacks, and the Ball Hawk Cowboys at this bargain price have to be in play.
