Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 5-2 in the high participant Double-Ups. Had a nice no doubter entry last week led by Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. That won’t be happening this week. This lineup is a little more unconventional. Little different atmosphere for me this week doing research for Sunday’s action out by the pool in sunny Arizona with beers in hand.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 11-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
P.J. Walker, QB: $5,200. Wait what? Is that correct? It sure is. Value QB time. Steve Wilks gave him the green light for this week and he gets the worst passing defense in the league in the Falcons. They can’t get to the quarterback and they can’t defend in the back end. The Dirty birds secondary is also getting worse not better allowing 368+ passing yards per game in their last three matchups against Burrow, Brady and Garoppolo. Walker isn’t on the same level as any of those QBs, but he has shown enough in limited action the last 2 weeks where I think he is a solid option against this secondary. Also the Panthers ran the ball well with Foreman and Hubbard against the Bucs who got gashed again on the ground last night. They won’t find the same success against this Falcons squad rushing. They only allow 101 yards per game on the ground and that’s with them trailing a bunch in garbage time.
Derrick Henry, RB: $8,400. The Titans rushing offense started slowly this season, but Henry has been ramping it up the last month. He missed week 6 with the Bye, but his last 4 starts have yielded an average of 25 carries for 108 YPG and 4 rushing TDs. His last two starts vs the Texans he has 56 carries for 462 yards and 4 TDs. And would you look, the Texans are dead last in the NFL in rushing defense allowing 164.7 YPG. Henry should feast on this Texans team again Sunday.
Kenneth Walker III, RB: $6,500. The Giants are winning football games. 6 out of 7 so far to be exact. Is it smoke and mirrors? Maybe. I think Daboll is the real deal as a football coach. I also think they’ve gotten some breaks because of the reason I am putting Walker in here. The rushing defense has struggled. They’ve allowed a 100 yard rusher in 4 of 7 games. They are 28th in total rushing defense allowing over 144 YPG. I think Jacksonville made a big mistake last week getting away from the ground game. How do you only hand it off 17 times in a game when you are averaging 8.2 yards per carry? Anyhoo….in the two and a half games since Walker has become the main back he has 52 carries for 352 yards and 4 touchdowns. That doesn’t suck. Geno Smith has proved he is enough of a threat to throw downfield that this rushing attack will continue to flourish.
DJ Moore, WR: $5,300. Here’s the guy P.J. Walker wants to go to. He had 10 targets with 7 catches for 69 yards and a score against the Bucs last week. With McCaffrey gone from this team and a solid rush defense opposing the Panthers this week I see a lot of targets coming his way again. I can’t believe I am saying this, but I like some Panthers stacks this week.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR: $7,400. Do you think Hopkins is a difference maker in the AZ offensive plan? In a game where the defense put them in a position to run the ball more Hopkins still had 14 targets. He reeled in 10 for 103 yards in his first game back from suspension. Guess which team is the worst in passing yards allowed per attempt in 2022? It’s the Vikings.
Adam Thielen, WR: $6,200. Thielen hasn’t had any huge yardage games up to this point and has only found the end zone twice this season. He is however averaging just under 8 targets a game since week 2. The Cardinals defense hasn’t been awful against secondary receivers thus far, but are 25th in total passing defense. I think coming off a Bye the Vikings will look to get Cousins going this week. Look for a big week for Jefferson also. He’s just too pricey for me.
Mike Gesicki, TE: $3,800. Gesicki has been feast or famine so far this season, but he does have 7 targets in each of his last two games. One with Tua and one without. The Lions are 29th in the league in defending the tight end allowing 5.5 catches and just over 62 yards per game to opposing TE1s.
Paris Campbell, FLEX: $4,600. Well this one will be a mystery with Matt Ryan being seemingly done with the Colts. Sam Ehlinger takes the reins, and from all reports has put in the time working with strength and throwing coaches to be able to make the throws all over the field needed to run this offense. Campbell had seemingly started too become a favorite intermediate target for Ryan when he actually had time to throw the ball. I am concerned that Ehlinger will be very heavy in slot targets to Pittman and then running backs in his first start this year, but I think at this price as a FLEX it’s worth a shot to play Paris as he will have to push the ball down field at some point and Campbell should get some looks. This was a coin flip for me between Campbell and Alec Pierce, but Campbell’s snap count has been much higher so far this year.
Commanders, DST: $2,600. Well the Commanders have been solid on Defense the last two weeks. The played the Packers and the Bears though so that’s not saying much. The do have the 7th most sacks in the NFL this season so they are getting some pressure on the opposing QB. They have only forced 4 total turnovers on the year so far though. Hoping against Ehlinger making his first start they can force some mistakes.
