NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend Plays – Sports Wagering

This should be a very interesting game as it has the lowest total of the four and you have Matt LaFleur who was the squire and offensive coordinator under Sean McVey a few years back at the Rams.  The old teacher vs Student backstory.   LaFleur learned a lot about offense under McVey and even earlier under then offensive coordinator Kyle Shannahan when he was Matt Ryans QB coach in 2016.  Let’s look at the lines.  What this total is telling you is that the Rams defense will show up.   When this happens, the rule of thumb is to lean towards the dog.  Now this rule certainly has it’s exceptions but not during playoff time.   Each of these 2 teams have 1 major weakness.  Green Bay can’t stop the run that well allowing 4.5 rushing yards per attempt.  They haven’t had to worry about this issue so much due to the fact that they were almost always leading by halftime and teams had to throw the ball.   I think that it is imperative that Green Bay gets the lead due to this issue.  The weakness that the Rams have is that they tend to not be able to score much on offense when teams are on to their deceptive play calling.   Sean McVey is a master of misdirection but playin against Matt LaFeur, who knows him quite well, is probably more of a detriment to his offense in Green Bay.  Both of these teams have a net +.7 yards per play so I do not see any advantage for there for either team but I think there is an advantage for the rams when you look at strength of schedule.  The Rams schedule ranks 9th in overall strength and the Packers rank 31st.  Green Bay had it easy facing the Lions, Vikings and the Bears all twice in that bad NFC North division.   I do not have the Packers 5 points better than the Rams on a neutral field.  Maybe more like 2 points.  So a 4.5 point spread is what I think that the line should be.  My Algorithm has the Packers winning 26 to 22.5 so a -3.5 point spread.   Due to this I think the Rams have a shot at keeping this game close and I have a slight lean to the over.   Taking the points but I think that Green Bay will win the game.   Wait until the last minute to get the best line.

• This is quite the interesting matchup.  Rushing team vs Passing team.
• Buffalo has been playing great down the stretch but they did have some problems with the colts last week and that game had some bad coaching decision on both ends.  The Colts should have kicked field goals when they had the chance in the first half and the Bills let the Colts back into the game towards the end with some poor play calling from McDermott when Josh Allen kept throwing the ball and had a 23 yard fumble that the Bills were fortunate to get back.
• The Ravens have been playing well down the stretch as well and they had a nice win last week vs the Titans.   If you would have told me they would only score 20 points vs that bad Titans defense, then I would have thought Tennessee would have won outright.
• The Book is out on Lamar Jackson and it is to contain him in the pocket and keep him from getting chunk yards running the football down and making him be a pocket passer but that’s easier said that done.   The Titans could not do that well with Lamar racking up 136 yards rushing.
• The Bills this year had issues facing QBs that can run the ball themselves against Mahomes and Kyler Murray but they at least were able to shut Cam Newton down.
• At the same time, Josh Allen is a pretty mobile QB and has over 400 rushing yards this year.  The Ravens themselves struggled against guys like Cam Newton and Patrick Mahomes this year.
• The Ravens Strength is their defense and rushing the ball being the top rushing team by far at 194 rushing yards per game.   They are however dead last in 100 passing yards per game.  The good news for the Ravens is that Buffalo is bad on stopping the run allowing 4.7 per rush.
• Buffalo’s strength is the pass at 3rd best in the league 290 passing yards per game.  The Ravens are pretty good against the pass but they haven’t performed well against the best of the best and their stregth of schedule ranks only 29th on Sagarin.
• I have these 2 teams equal in my power ratings so I think if you like the Bills side a little with the home field, grabbing it under the key number of 3 makes sense.   I think whomever plays the QB position best will win this game and that might mean that Josh Allen will have to run the ball a bit himself.
• Both teams are a positive .4 yards per play so that is pretty equal.
• If Buffalo wants to win this game, they need to cheat up to stop the run completely and make Lamar throw the ball.   Take away the middle of the field and play some man defense.  Make Lamar throw the ball to the sidelines.  If they lose to that then tip your cap.  Also, don’t go to dime coverage if you are winning because the Ravens will capitalize on chunk yards vs that.
• If the Ravens want to win, then they need to pound the ball well and set up the pass.  Try and push the defensive ends outside so lamar can run on pass plays.  He isn’t a typical QB rush type of QB.
• My Algorithm has the game 28.5 to 26 meaning the spread is -2.75 for that so rather than looking at the side, I think the over is in play being that my total is 54.5
• Last week the Baltimore/Tennessee over was 54.5 and the Indianapolis/Buffalo was 51.5 so I do not see why it went down this much when the Ravens D is although very good, they did have such an easy schedule this year in that AFC North.  Also, last week that Buffalo game had multiple opportunities to go over the 51 instead of pushing.

Lean Buffalo but Take the Over 50 – 3 star premium shared