Jaguars vs Chiefs -8.5 O/U 53 –
I can see why this spread is where it’s at from when Patrick homes sliced this defense apart at Arrowhead back in November winning by 10 points, but I believe that the Jaguars are now a better football team and it showed over the last 5 weeks beating teams like the Cowboys, Jets and the Titans twice. Both teams are very healthy coming into this game. Kansas city has strong numbers. Mahomes is number 1 in EPA and CPOE. Kansas City is number 1 in net yards per play at +1.2. If the Chiefs have a weakness, it is against the run allowing 4.4 yards per rushing attempt where the Jaguars average 4.8. If Kansas City jumps this Jaguars team like the Chargers did, don’t expect a winning comeback, but if Jacksonville can control the clock some and put some pressure on Travis Kelce I think they could make some noise here. I like the fact that these teams have played each other and that there is familiarity for the dog especially. I also like how the Jags faced a team with a good tight end last week in Gerald Everette. The Chief’s big weakness is allowing touchdowns in the red zone ranking 31st giving up six at a 67% clip which should help the Jaguars in the Red Zone. Either way, I think Kansas City wins this game, but my number is Kansas City -6.75.
Jaguars +8.5 – 2.5 stars
Giants vs Eagles -7.5 O/U 48
Here is a huge game with two divisional rivals playing a third time! Now the Eagles have kinda limped into the playoffs with the Hurts injury. Do you think that the Eagles did anything to show their hand the last week of the season vs the Giants? Maybe, maybe not. I am a little weary of the Eagles defense here. Over the last 7 weeks, the Eagles defense is closer to average ranking 11th in oppoonent EPA per play. We don’t have to say much about the Giants defense giving up 5.9 yards per play and ranking 28th in opponent EPA per play. The way for the Giants to win this game is running the football. The eagles only weakness is against the run allowing 4.6 yard per rush and 26th in opponent rush epa, and that is where Saquon Barkley needs to attack them with the Giants averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 7th in rush EPA themselves. In saying that, the Eagles are number 1 in rush EPA at 4.6 yards per attempt while the Giants defense gives up a massive 5.2 yards per rushing attempt ranking 30th in opponent rush EPA. The Eagles have a huge 1.4 net yards per play advantage here. Metrically, I have the Giants by 10 points, but the 7.5 number is a good one based on the familiarity that these teams have with each other. I like how Jones played the last few weeks and his legs have been just as dangerous as any other quarterback’s. Their first game went to 70 points. Strong lean to Eagles but take the over.
I like the over 47 or 48 for 2.5 stars
Teaser: Kansas City to -2.5 with the Eagles to -1.5 – 1.5 stars
