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Rams vs Eagles -6.5 O/U 42.5
This may be a great game on the eyes today as the 10-7 Rams visit the 14-3 Eagles in what is looking like a snow game! Let’s start right away with the advanced metrics. Due to Rams very early injuries, we have to start EPA from week 9 ending week 17 due to players resting week 18 on both teams. The Eagles are 6th in offensive EPA. They are 9th in drop-back EPA and 1st in rush EPA. The Rams are 13th in offensive EPA. They are 11th in drop-back EPA and 17th in rush EPA. On Defense, the Eagles are 1st in defensive EPA, 1st in drop-back EPA, and 1st in rush EPA. Respectively, the Rams are 15th in defensive EPA, 19th in drop-back EPA and 11th in rush EPA. If you look since week 13, the Rams are in the top 10 in offensive EPA. The Rams finished the last few weeks of the season a bit better than the Eagles did especially when you look at strength of schedule. The Eagles have a +1 net yards per play advantage, and they are also the more efficient team.
The Nakobe Dean injury for the birds I think is massive, and it could not have come at a worse time. The Market isn’t reflecting it as much as they should as I believe the Rams will have success running the football. The Eagles are the best at guarding receivers and tight ends in the league. Maybe a Puka Nakua or a Cooper Kupp under prop is in order. With the Philly linebacker issues, I think rushing prop Kyren Williams over is in play. We have to respect how well the Rams are playing as of late and the fact that they have the better coach. If it wasn’t for the Nakobe Dean Injury, this number should be closer to seven. I think it should be around five. The snow here is also screaming dog. The total is dropping as we type this. Taking the Rams with some props.
Rams +6 – 2 stars
Kyren Williams over 75.5 receiving yards – .5 stars
Ravens vs Bills +1 O/U 51
This is the best game of the NFL season as my top two teams are facing off in the quarter finals. Let’s hope we do not have the refs deciding the game like we did in the Chiefs game. Both of these teams rested in week 18, so lets look at the EPA numbers up to week 17. The Bills are 1st in offensive EPA. They are 2nd in drop-back EPA and 3rd in rush EPA. The Ravens 2nd in offensive EPA. They are 1st in drop-back EPA and number 2 in rush EPA. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bills are number 12 in defensive EPA, 19th in drop-back EPA and 5th in rush EPA. The Ravens are14th in defensive EPA, 18th drop-back EPA and 4thin rush EPA. The Ravens have a big 1.1 net yards per play advantage. These teams are very identical. The Ravens have a great success rate as they always get the first down. The Bills are the much more efficient team as they have the more explosive plays and rank much higher in offensive and defensive yards per point. The Bills numbers are a little bit misleading on defense as they lost a few linebackers like Milano and Bernard during the season, yet both are back healthy. This is the healthiest that I have seen this Buffalo team this late in the season. The Ravens will be without their star wide receiver in Zay Flowers. I have the Ravens as the slightly better team in my power ratings, but the home field for the Bills might be all that they need. Lamar hasn’t great in the cold or in the playoffs in the past. This game will go to clutch performances. Josh Allen maybe the most clutch performer next to Patrick Mahomes in the NFL. Lamar has not proven it for me. He loses in the playoffs and I do not see why it would change now. Until it does, water is wet, the sky is blue. Fade the Ravens in the Playoffs.
From a prop perspective both Baltimore and Buffalo are top 4 in allowing receiving yards to running backs. Maybe look at a Ty Johnson/James Cook receiving prop and definitely a Justice Hill receiving prop over. Last matchup he had 78 yards against the Bills.
Bills PK +100 – 2 stars
Justice Hill over 23.5 rec yards – 1.5 stars
Ty Johnson anytime TD +550 – 2.5 stars
