Cincinnati vs Buffalo -6 O/U 49
I think the Bengals are a top three team in the league. Last week against the Ravens was bad, and that is what good coaches like John Harbaugh does. They ugly up games. Roquan Smith has proven to be a pretty good asset on that Ravens defense. In saying that Buffalo has a strong offense at 1.1 net yards per play towering over the Bengals at .1 net yards per play. Buffalo looks to have advantages on the ground at 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, but some of that is Josh Allen’s legs himself. Cincinnati strength is through the air matching Buffalo at 260 passing yards per game. Both are top 5 in drop-back EPA and success rate. The path for the Bills to cover this spread is on the ground as the Ravens showed us last week, but the Bills tend to not get the best out of their running game at times and only rank 16th in rush EPA even with the strong yards per attempt. The Bills weakness is against the pass with their two best safeties out in Damar Hamlin and Micah Hyde early in the season. This isn’t good news against Burrow and his 4 stud pass catchers in Higgens, Chase, Boyd and Hurst. Don’t forget Mixon. The Patriots showed that path to victory minus their special teams screw ups the final week of the season. This is where the Bengals can stay in this game and keep it very close. Now I know that Cincinnati has some bad offensive line injuries, but this is something that they delt with all year in 2022 and they made it to the Superbowl. If the Bengals are smart, they also get Mixon very involved in the passing game and get him in some space. Cinci looked good in the beginning of the cancelled game against the Bills a few weeks back. I have the Bills -2.5 here. I think the Bengals cover this spread with a shot to win it.
Bengals +6 – 3 stars – +205 ML for .5 stars
Bills sack prop over 2.5 sacks -110 – 2 stars
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