It’s NFL Draft time and if you’re like me you’re excited just to talk a little pro football! Here are a few of my best bets, as well as some crazy lines that I think could be worth a look.
Caleb Farley under 23.5 (-110): There are so many intangibles that are working against Caleb Farley. He took off last year because of COVID concerns, he just had back surgery, which reportedly caused him to not have feeling in his toes, he missed his pro day, and now Caleb has COVID so he won’t make it to the draft, resulting in more virtual meetings with coaches and scouts than he would like. So then why do I like this kid to go under 23.5? If Farley can stay healthy, teams know that he’s one of the best picks you can make in the first round. Patrick Surtain will likely be the first cornerback to get picked, but I’m not so sure about JayCee Horn or Greg Newsome II. The Arizona Cardinals pick at #16 and with Surtain likely being gone, Farley is a perfect fit for a Cards unit that’s extremely thin at that position. Farley is professional, has size and a high IQ– the others might need some rearing. Out of all the corners, Farley also has the highest ceiling; he’s gotten better and better every year and many believe we haven’t see his peak. And now he has a chip on his shoulder. I wanted to lean over but I have a feeling about this one.
DeVonta Smith under 11.5 (EVEN): I know this isn’t a popular grab anymore but DeVonta Smith has been all over the media and I like the way he’s responded. Humble but confident, Smith has little doubt that he’ll electrify an NFL offense and I think many of these top 11 teams know it. Even if Jaylen Waddle and J-Mar Chase are chosen first, Smith still has a good chance of getting picked. The Dolphins, Bengals, Lions, Panthers, and Giants could all be interested in the dynamic Alabama receiver. For even money, I’ll take Smith to keep shocking the world.
Jaylen Waddle first WR drafted (+600) and under 10.5 (-135): Ja’Marr Chase has apparently been crowned the best WR in this draft by some pundits, but I’m not so sure these top 10 teams in the draft feel that way. Even with DeVonta Smith’s electric talent, one that was on full display when he almost solely took over the National Championship game, scouts and coaches agreed that Jaylen Waddle, throughout his Alabama career, was the guy you’d want to draft as your team’s future #1 receiver. For that reason, consider that first bet at a huge +600 value. If Jaylen Waddle is picked second or third, he’ll still have a fantastic chance at going under 10.5 with the 4 aforementioned teams in the top 10 that are interested in an elite pass catcher. I like both bets, but the latter really feels like it’ll happen. A little juice, but I say it’s well worth it.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramorah as first LB drafted (+650) and under 19.5 (-120): Watch some of this guy’s film and you’ll see what I mean. As a Notre Dame fan (don’t hate me), I watched Jeremiah single-handedly take over games on defense. He has absolutely elite quickness and change-of-direction speed, he’s a freak athletically, and he has a very high football IQ. He won the Butkus Award for all these reasons and more. Micah Parsons, everyone’s sure-fire first LB pick, has some shady disciplinary issues in his past. Owusu-Koramorah has a squeaky clean record and a long list of accomplishments at South Bend. Even if he doesn’t go first, I love him for Washington at the 19th pick. Adding to an already dominant unit, that would be a scary addition for the Football Team and I don’t seem them passing on it.
Other bets to consider–
Mac Jones under 3.5 (-270): I’d just like to point out that this used to be + money not long ago. Now it’s apparently a sure-thing that he’s going to the 49ers (according to many in the media). Is this price too high to pay for it now? That’s up to you to decide.
Trey Lance under 5.5 (+120): This might be worth a look. Who’s to say that Atlanta won’t take Trey, or maybe some other team will trade up with Atlanta or Miami to snag Trey out of fear they’ll miss out. This is a great line for a bet that could easily hit.
Caleb Farley first CB chosen (+2400): This will probably be Patrick Surtain but again, if there are trades and things get weird and a team already fell in love with Farley, this isn’t out of the world of possibility.
