Flying from the East Coast to Vegas is good for at least one reason: plenty of time on a 5-hour flight to write a damn article and actually listen to a few podcasts for once. Lock and load, here we go! Here’s a free pick for Wildcard Weekend!
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Placed 5th in the NFL Circa Sports Million Contest (61-28-1, 68%)
Current NBA Record: 141-106 (57%), +49.52 units
49ers/Cowboys over 51 (-110), 2 units: A storied, historic rivalry starts off the Sunday slate this weekend when the 49ers take on the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. The Cowboys are coming off an unimpressive smashing of the Eagles, which inflated their offensive stats for the year (slow clap), but did little to change their trajectory in the playoffs. That was probably a good move by Dallas after that stinker two weeks before against Arizona. The Niners, meanwhile, earned a wild playoff berth by coming back from a 17-0 deficit last week at Sofi Stadium. Jimmy Garoppolo, who the media still loves to hyper-criticize, was excellent in the second half against the Rams. He led the Niners down the field to score two TDs in the 3rd quarter, then orchestrated an amazing final drive to seal the game-winning field goal. Jimmy G may not be consistent (who is besides Brady and Rodgers these days?), but he showed poise in a really tough spot last week against his rival. That’s not a bad thing to take into the playoffs, and it only gives the Niners’ offense that much more confidence.
The Cowboys have the premiere offense in the NFL; hopefully that’s not a surprise to anyone anymore. They rank #1 in DVOA and #1 in a bunch of offensive categories. Here’s just a few where they rank very highly:
- Points per game, 1st
- Yards per game, 1st
- Points per play, 1st
- Yards per play, 3rd
- Yards per pass, 4th
- Rush yards per game, 9th
Okay so, the Cowboys have a really good offense. And for what it’s worth, the 49ers have struggled to consistently perform on the defensive side of the field. It’s the reason why San Francisco went down 17-0 against the Rams. A second quarter interception didn’t help. And It wasn’t the first time the 49ers allowed other offenses to thrive. Lions- scored 33, Seahawks- 28, Colts- 30; these aren’t exactly juggernauts this season, yet they all experienced a ton of success against San Francisco’s defense.
The Niners are full of talent on both sides of the ball, but we trust their offense more. They ended the season delivering, winning their final 2 games against a team in Houston that never gives up and against their arch-enemy in LAR. No team in the NFL has more big-play potential than the 49ers. They’re 1st in yards per play (6.1) and 1st in yards per pass (8.2). They’re also top 10 in most rushing statistics. Fortunately for the Niners, Dallas allows 5.5 yards per play and has been bad against the run all season. Micah Parsons is worth the hype- he’s a difference maker and seems to make an impact on almost every play. But Kyle Shanahan is arguably the most creative coach in football; he’ll figure out ways to get around that beast. Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Greg Kittle, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb- the offensive stars will be out in force in this Wildcard game. I’m betting that they’ll win much more often than they’ll lose.
If the Niners run-game can do something, look out. A play on the Niners at +3 or a moneyline wager shouldn’t be out of the question. For now, we’ll stick with the over. I don’t see how either defense can slow down the other.
