NFL Free Plays Week 2 – Sports Betting

Jacksonville vs Tennessee -7 O/U 43

I think that there may be some over-reaction on both sides of this game.  Jacksonville beat the Colts outright at home making them 6-0 SU at home and 6-0 ATS at home the last 3 years vs the Colts.   Jacksonville is just 9-13 ATS the last 3 years after a win and I think this line might an overreaction.   The Jags were outgained by the Colts 445 yards to 241 at home.   They benefitted from a 0-2 turnover ratio which made all the difference in this game.   Gardner Minshew actually played really well but now they are facing an underrated Tennessee secondary who held the Broncos to 2016 passing yards in Denver.   The Titans also missed 2 field goals and had a 1-0 turnover ratio making this final score a bit misleading.  I know AJ Brown is out for the Titans but Corey Davis and Adam Humphries are capable making up for his role and watch out for tight end Jonnu Smith.   I am going to take the Titans here but I will wait a bit to see where this line ends up.  I say buy it down if you have to.

New England vs Seattle -4 O/U 45

This is a match-up of 2 winning teams from last week.  The Seahawks put up 299 passing yards against the dirty birds last week and didn’t even have to utilize their ground game.  New England last week was unstoppable on the ground running for 217 yards against the Miami Dolphins who I thought would take a better step forward on defense when they added CB Byron Jones, OLB Kyle Van Noy, DE Shaq Lawson, DE Emmanual Ogbah.  The Devonte Parker injury certainly didn’t do them any favors during the game.   My number is the Seahawks winning by 6.5 points but I am a little scared that they were outgained so much last week by 123 yards in Atlanta and I don’t like that they were the 3rd worst ATS team at home last year at 2-6.  The total here looks more interesting to me.  The Patriots lost some key players opting out in Donta Hightower and Patrick Chung and if your name is not the Miami Dolphins, maybe a team can put up some points here.  Seattle is throwing much more on first and second down according to the Falcons game.  Seattle’s defense isn’t that great and they won’t have that crowd at Century Link field to slow Cam down completely.  Pro Football focus ranked the Seahawks dead last in their defensive trenches coming into the season.   The Seahawks gave up over 500 yards to Atlanta and even though a lot was at garbage time, I expect Cam to give them a different look and some different problems.   I like some scoring in this game.