We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
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AFC East
2021 Records
Buffalo 11-6/ New England 10-7/ Miami 9-8/ New York Jets 4-13
Buffalo – The Bills won their second straight AFC East crown in 2021, but couldn’t pull out the most thrilling NFL game I have ever seen in the divisional round against KC. They win the coin flip they win that game, and honestly I think would have completed my Super Bowl prediction of Rams vs Bills. They come into this year as Super Bowl favorites, with 9 starters returning on offense I don’t see the scoring slowing down any in Buffalo especially with the addition of Jamison Crowder. Biggest question mark for me on offense is Ken Dorsey taking over at OC for Brian Daboll. On defense all anyone seems to remember is the collapse against KC, but this unit was #1 in the NFL in yards per game allowed and the gap between them and the #2 Defense is as big as the span between the #2 Defense and the #15 Defense. In other words they were dominant. They add Von Miller who while getting older, still can bring it to a front six in flux. The Bills use a 4-2-5 and move things around all over the field creating match-up issues and Miller will only add more to the problems for opposing Offensive Lines. In the secondary if Tre’Davious White can return to form following an ACL injury on Thanksgiving this will likely again be the top pass defense. Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced Over -150
New England – Mac Jones “Emerged” as a viable NFL quarterback in 2021 and will have a new OC with Josh McDaniels leaving for another head coaching gig. The Pats surprised to the tune of 10-7 last year and were able to sneak into the playoffs where they got throttled 47-17 by Buffalo. They just aren’t in the same class as the Bills. Devante Parker joins the Patriots which will give the Pats their first true #1 WR since….I dunno maybe Randy Moss? I look for Hunter Henry and Jones to continue to develop together. The NE defense is what got them to 10 wins as they were #4 overall in YPG. The Big boys up front and the secondary will look very familiar, but the linebacking core is going to take a huge hit with losses of Dona Hightower and Jamie Collins. I see the D taking a step back so it will be up to Mac Jones and company to continue to grow if they are to repeat 10 wins in 2022. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced Under -130
Miami – The Dolphins were my biggest miss in 2021 as I liked them to show up and give Buffalo a run for the division. The team I was looking for showed up i the second half, but it was too little too late after a 1-7 start. Brian Flores is now gone replaced by Mike McDaniel who will attempt to get the Dolphins a winning season for the third straight year. I like this hire as getting five years in Kyle Shanahan’s system should help improve an offense that was 23rd in ypg in 2021. Tyreek Hill is a big splash acquisition and could help open up some room for Tua to find guys underneath like Waddle. For me personally it all comes down to Tua taking that next step everyone is waiting for. The fact that the Fins were pursuing Deshaun Watson tells me all I need to know about if the organization thinks that will happen. On defense resigning Ogbah was huge as it gives them a great edge rushing combo with Jaelan Phillips. Xavien Howard is regarded as one of the top man to man cover guys in the game and allows the Dolphins to blitz often. They will do so again in 2022 and if they play like they did in the second half last year this team will make some noise. Side Note – For a third place schedule Miami got it rough this year drawing the 49ers and Chargers as 2 of the 3 variable opponents. Vegas Win Projection: 9 Juiced Under -125
New York Jets – Well the Jets are still the bottom feeders in this division. I read a few articles so far this year that think they will be a playoff contender. I’d like to get some of the stuff they’re smoking. This Tiktok from last year really sums up my feelings on the Jets for this year as well. https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2021/9/22/22687727/kid-roasts-jets-tiktok-video The O-Line looks to be slightly improved, but still not great. The receiving core adds Garrett Wilson hoping he can become a top option for Wilson. Corey Davis certainly isn’t it. Oh, speaking of Wilson, it sounds like he spent much of the summer off the grid with Stifler’s Mom. We will see what Year 2 brings for him, but I don’t think this unit gets much better than last year. On defense they were 31st in PFF rankings, so should improve from the cellar. Maybe to lets say 27th. CJ Mosley is solid, but the rest of the front seven is still questionable. They drafted Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner so that should help the corners, but they let Marcus Maye go in Free Agency, so I call that a wash at best in the back-end. Some people think they had the best draft of any team this year, but that doesn’t mean it translates to the field. Vegas Win Projection: 6 Juiced Over -145
2022 Projections
Buffalo 12-5
New England 9-8
Miami 8-9
New York Jets 4-13
AFC East Action:
Buffalo – I’m making small play on the Bills to win division at -240. I don’t see the others catching them this year, and even if Allen gets hurt they signed a solid NFL veteran in Case Keenum.
New England – No Plays
Miami – No Plays – Lean Under on Season Win Total. I may play this small and hedge as their first 4 games are tough with New England, Baltimore, Buffalo and Cincinnati.
New York Jets – 2 Unit play on Under 6 +115 Season Win Total. Let’s say they go 2-1 in their variable games in Denver, Seattle and Jacksonville, and they go 1-3 vs the NFC North (Beat one of Chicago or Detroit) and 1-3 vs AFC North. (Beat Cleveland or Pittsburgh) They would have to go 3-3 in division to lose this play. Not happening, 2-4 is best case scenario in division I think. I could also see them dropping another variable game losing to Jax or Sea and it wouldn’t shock me if they go 0-4 vs AFC North. This line started was at 5.5 and has been bet up, but I’m taking the plus money and going the other way.
