We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
NFC North
2021 Records
Cincinnati 10-7/Pittsburgh 9-7-1/ Cleveland 8-9/ Baltimore 8-9
Baltimore – The Ravens struggled to find consistency in 2021 while dealing with a multitude of key injuries across the team. Check out this metric for comparison https://twitter.com/ManGamesLostNFL/status/1481423174768242688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1481423174768242688%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Febonybird.com%2F2022%2F01%2F13%2Fravens-injury-woes-2021-stats%2F Only the Giants lost more player games to injury and theirs weren’t as significant. They still managed to come in 6th in yards per game, a lot of this due to Lamar Jackson’s legs. He still isn’t a fully functional NFL pocket passer finishing 22nd in completion percentage, and 23rd in passer rating. Getting back JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards should take some pressure off Jackson. If Ronnie Stanley comes back healthy at left tackle is should also give Jackson more time in the pocket. The receiving core is the big question mark on offense with Mark Andrews the only trusted target with Hollywood Brown gone to the Cardinals. On defense Patrick Queen is the anchor at linebacker and he really started to play well down the stretch in 2021. I really like the addition of Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton into the back-end of the defense. He is a ball hawk and should help shore up a unit that gave up an NFL worst 16 plays of 40+ yards last year. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over -155
Cincinnati – Everything really came together for the Bengals as they reached the Super Bowl and came up just short of a truly improbably championship. Joe Burrow proved that he is the real deal, and the Burrow to Chase combo is the most proficient in the league early in his young career. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd don’t suck either. Pro-Bowl RB Joe Mixon will get his in the running game again. The only glaring weakness on the offensive side of the ball was the O-Line as Burrow was sacked 51 times in the regular season and 19 more times in the playoffs. They went out and signed 3 proven linemen in free agency and invested in protecting Burrow. The Logan Wilson anchored defense was efficient if not flashy finishing in the middle of the pack in YPG allowed and points allowed. They invested in the secondary through the draft and should be primed to finish in the top half of the league in 2022. Vegas Win Projection: 10 Juiced Under -135
Pittsburgh – The end of the Big Ben era in Pittsburgh brings questions and competition to the Steel City. Since 2004 they never finished worse than 8-8, won three AFC titles and 2 Super Bowls. But they also have only won 3 playoff games since 2011. Kenny Pickett was drafted as the heir apparent, but I think this is Mitchell Trubisky’s job to lose in the 3 man competition with Mason Rudolph. Najee Harris became a star in his rookie season and should benefit from the O-Line getting a year under their belt as they were the least experienced in game action heading into 2021. Chase Claypool and Diante Johnson are both above average targets for whoever wins the QB job. Pittsburgh finished in the bottom third in effiency ratings on offense in 2021 so should be able to improve on that. The defense is anchored by defensive player of the year T.J. Watt and they have some work to do to improve in 2022. They were dead last against the run last year which isn’t good in the AFC North, and they haven’t changed much in the front seven. The secondary is also suspect, with Joe Haden gone and Minkah Fitzpatrick losing a step seemingly every year. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Under -120
Cleveland – I don’t know what to do with Cleveland. The suspension news I am hearing as of publish date for this article is 2-8 games with a lean toward 8. Who knows with the NFL. Brady got 4 games for deflating footballs, and Calvin Ridley gets a full season for betting. 30 Women assulted is only 8 games I guess? I think there will be a huge public outcry if it’s less than a season. Watson said he will fight that in court, but then his suspension could drag into 2023. His contract is $230 Million guaranteed, but is structured so only $1 Million of it is his salary in 2022 vs $46 million in the other years. I think he will accept whatever is handed down and roll into 2023 where his big money is at. That being said my projections are based off Watson not being in uniform. Should that change I will adjust my Browns and opponents projections. The big add besides Watson was Amari Cooper who will boost the offense. Nick Chubb is still a beast running the ball, as the Browns were 4th in the NFL in rushing in 2021. The defense is solid and were 5th in yards allowed in 2021. Myles Garrett anchors the front seven and Denzel Ward is on of the best in the secondary. The Browns are clearly in win now mode and we will see what Watson’s saga brings once concluded. Jacoby Brissett will run the show to start the year. Watson getting 8 games would add roughly 2 wins and only 2 games would add 3-4 wins in my eyes. Vegas Win Projection: Off The Board
2022 Projections
Baltimore 12-5
Cincinnati 10-7
Pittsburgh 8-9
Cleveland 6-11
AFC North Action:
Baltimore – 1.5 Units on Baltimore over 9.5 -155 Season Win Total. I’m laying the juice here. 4th place schedule includes Jacksonville, Denver and the New York Giants. If this team stays healthy they should get to 10 wins. 1 Unit on Baltimore to win Division +165. I may add some units if Watson suspension is short as Plus money should increase on Baltimore.
Cincinnati – No Plays
Pittsburgh – No Plays
Cleveland – Keep an eye here, if suspension is short I think their win total will be inflated.
