We have now completed the first full weekend of the Pre-Season which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 5 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures there. I have gone through the entire schedule, game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top 5 plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter @TheGreatKnoche
AFC South – Arguably the second weakest division in the NFL, there is value right now on Tennessee. I believe they are clearly the best team in this division. Derrick Henry is going to get his, and he should have an even more balanced passing attack with the addition of Julio Jones. He should still have plenty left in the tank, and with AJ Brown becoming a bona fide #1 receiver he should get plenty of solo coverage. They still have some improvement to make on defense, #1 pick Caleb Farley hasnt been able to play yet in camp, and they didn’t make many changes here from the unit which gave up 27+ PPG in 2020. This is what will keep them from making a bigger step in the playoffs. The Colts tied for the top with the Titans in 2020 with a stout defense and a balanced offense. Once Jonathan Taylor got rolling so did the colts. They averaged over 30 PPG in their last 8 games. With Rivers retiring they have turned to Carson Wentz hoping to keep him upright. He is now at least according to reports on track to return earlier than expected from foot surgery, but whether its Wentz, Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger this offense wont be as potent as it was in 2020. Jacksonville’s new regime features QB Trevor Lawrence and potentially our first real look at a college offense getting translated to the NFL with Urban Meyer. It will take more than a few changes though to makeover a defense that was the second worst in the NFL giving up nearly 500 points on the season. I see them cranking out a few more wins than last year, but it will take a few more draft classes to get Lawrence some weapons and a few players on defense. Houston was a mess last year before all the news on Deshaun Watson came out. We are still waiting to see how that will shakeout, but this team did not improve in the off season and should end up at the bottom of the standings this year. The AFC South gets the NFC West and AFC East as common opponents.
Tennessee 11-6
Indianapolis 7-10
Jacksonville 5-12
Houston 3-14
AFC West – The Patrick Mahomes show continued in the AFC West with a slight interruption for a toe injury. With weapons like Kelce and Hill, Mahomes will continue to be a star in the league and the only thing stopping him is going to be an injury or Tampa’s Defense. The Chiefs went unchallenged in this division in 2020 dominating on both sides of the ball. This year they should have a battle in the division as I see the Chargers taking a big step forward. Adding protectors for Justin Herbert in RaShawn Slater in the draft and Cory Linsley in free agency is huge. The Chargers had the worst protection rate in the NFL last year. With a healthy Austin Ekeler coming back and Herbert already having shown signs of being a star this offense is ready to make a big leap. Oh and they have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to stretch the field and provide big time targets in the red zone. Adding Brandon Staley as coach is also huge for the defense as he will continue to call plays on defense just as he did with that lethal Rams unit last year. Las Vegas and Team Chucky had an 8-8 campaign in 2020 and really struggled on the defensive side of the ball. The had the 8th best offense in the league, but a lot of that was trying to come from behind. This team has a lot of holes and adding Casey Heyward on defense isnt enough to get them to move up in the AFC West. The Denver Broncos added Teddy Bridgewater to compete at QB with Locke. After going 5-11 last year somehow this is supposed to propel this group to a .500 team according to the sport books? Vic Fangio is supposed to be a defensive guru, and his defenses have gone backwards since he got there. Patrick Surtain may fill a big gap for them on defense, but certainly not enough to get Denver out of the cellar. They also close their schedule with 5 of 7 games in division including a pair each against the Chiefs and Chargers. Unless they get out to a fast start, I dont see this team finishing strong and getting above .500. The AFC West gets the NFC East and AFC North as common opponents.
Kansas City 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers 11-6
Las Vegas 8-9
Denver 6-11
Free picks:
Team Total Win Bets Free Plays – Denver Broncos Team Total under 8.5 -110, this is my Number 2 Team Total win play. Indianapolis Colts under 9.5 wins, This is my number 5 Team total win play
Division Winner Play – The Tennessee Titans are my best value play to win a divison. You can currently grab them at -105 to win the AFC South if you shop around.
