We have arrived at the first few days of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 178-151-2 with a 7.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $500 for the whole season.
Wanna know anything else? Hit me up on twitter or whatever it’s called now @TheGreatKnoche.
NFC North
2022 Records
Minnesota 13-4/ Detroit 9-8/ Green Bay 8-9/ Chicago 3-14
Detroit – Feels strange to be putting this team atop the NFC North as they haven’t won it in 30 years. That being said I don’t think this team moved themselves forward as much as the hype is making it seem. They had plenty of picks from the Stafford trade, and I wasn’t overly impressed with them, but we shall see. Goff and the offense really clicked last year and should easily be a top 10 unit again this season. David Montgomery will replace D’Andrew Swift and Jamaal Williams in the backfield along with first round pick Jahmyr Gibbs. I’m not sure this is an upgrade. We’ll see if Jameson Williams coming off injury and gambling suspension can give them some help for Amon-Ra St. Brown. Also keeping Ben Johnson was big. The defense is led up front by pressure from Aiden Hutchinson. In the back seven they turned a lot of the group over including moving on from talented corner Jeff Okudah. They did grab three corners in free agency and used their other first round pick on LB Jack Campbell. I still don’t see the defensive unit being in the top half of rankings, but it should be better than last year. If it’s a lot better this team could reach double digit wins. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over at -125, Under -105
Green Bay – Do the Packers have their third straight generational QB? As someone who lives in Wisconsin I do think I’ve seen enough of him to believe he will be serviceable to keep the offense from declining a large amount. Kinda the same way I felt about Aaron Rodgers the first year he got the reigns. He’s a first round QB talent that everyone said had high upside. We’re all going to find out together. As per usual the Packers did almost nothing big to help Love in Free Agency electing to build though the draft with 13 picks and signing a boatload of nobodies hoping someone makes a break through on a new team. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be a core feature of the offense and Christian Watson is certainly already a top deep ball threat. They will need someone to step up and become a second target for Love however. Sounds almost exactly like the last five off-seasons with Rodgers. On defense I think this team took a slight step back in talent, but should still be a middle of the road unit. Who do you Love? Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced to the Over at -135, Under +105
Minnesota – Last year they may have been the luckiest team in NFL history. They went 13-4 with a negative end of year point differential and were only +2 at end of year in turnover differential. They somehow went 11-0 in one possession games and won 9 games they trailed in the second half including that complete meltdown by the Colts in Week 15. This should have been a nine win team at best, and the talent level is going in the wrong direction on both sides of the ball. The offense was top ten in 2022, but the defense was 31st in yards allowed per game, and as I pointed out they really didn’t blow anyone out so teams weren’t throwing against a prevent defense in order to rack up those yards. They lost four key pieces on that awful defense including trading away 10 sack man Za’darius Smith. I think the only potential improvement on the defensive side comes from new DC Brian Flores. The offense will sill be decent with Kirk Cousins and the helm and Justin Jefferson to throw to and draft pick Jordan Addison should slide in for Thielen at the number two receiver spot. Alexander Mattison should be a fine replacement for Dalvin Cook who clearly lost a step. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced to the Over at -125, Under -105
Chicago – Justin Fields made some progress last year as a QB. However his lack of skill in the passing game limits his overall ability to carry this team. If he could stretch the field better and run the way he does I would be much higher on this team. They got him some help in protection from the draft in Darnell Wright. The running game should transition ok with D’onta Foreman, and D.J. Moore is an upgrade for them at WR to pair along side Darnell Mooney, but if they can’t complete a pass more than ten yards down field those upgrades mean nothing. He’s got enough talent around him now where we find out this year if Fields can sink or swim and I think he’s a giant lead weight. Free agent signings Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards are a solid upgrade to a defensive unit that was 29th overall last year. They spent 7 of 10 draft picks on defense so they should improve, but they certainly didn’t upgrade the unit enough to compete even in this week division. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced to the Over at -130, Under +100
2023 Predictions
Detroit 9-8
Green Bay 8-9
Minnesota 7-10
Chicago 5-12
NFC North Action:
Detroit – No Action. I think they’ll win the division, but they have some tougher at large games keeping me off it in Seattle, Baltimore and Dallas
Green Bay – No Action. As much as an optimistic Packer fan as I’d like to be I can’t bet on the Packers getting to my prediction of eight wins with such a huge unknown at QB.
Minnesota – The NFC North gets one strong cross division opponent in the AFC West and one weaker one in the NFC South. The Vikings also get the first place schedule of Philadelphia, San Francisco and Cincinnati. Between the AFC West and those three games I think 2-5 is optimistic with their defensive issues. Can they go 7-3 in their other ten games to get to 9 wins? I don’t think so. Under 8.5 Wins -105, 1.5 Units.
Chicago – Under 7.5, 1 Unit. There’s been money coming in on the over since season win totals posted. I’m not a believer in Fields and the Bears improving 5 wins from last season. Sorry Kiev.
