We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
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AFC West
2021 Records
Kansas City 12-5/ Las Vegas 10-7/ LA Chargers 9-8/ Denver 7-10
Kansas City – The Chiefs have arrived at the realization that they will have to build through the draft now that Patrick Mahomes contract has kicked in at full dollars. They traded Tyreek Hill for a boat load of draft picks to try and rebuild a defense that lost a ton through free agency. Mahomes is still elite although he did have the worst season of his career in 2021. The Offensive Line is still solid for him, so I expect him to bounce back even with MVS being the primary replacement for Hill. Their front seven on defense actually may be slightly improved this year, but the secondary loses 3 out of 4 starters. The Chiefs spent 5 of their 10 draft picks on secondary help hoping to find NFL talent through sheer numbers. People are saying the Chiefs are going to lose control of the division this year. I am not one of those people. I have them winning a tie-breaker with LA by virtue of a better division record. As a Packers fan I have watched Aaron Rodgers keep them in contention year after year with high roster turnover. Granted he can’t win the big games anymore. Good Luck in the Playoffs Chiefs fans. Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced Over -130.
Los Angeles Chargers – The Bolts were an overtime tie away from making the playoffs in 2021, but the Raiders played to win in week 17 at the end of the game, and knocked them out. Justin Herbert took the first step in proving he is an elite NFL QB, and I think he only gets better in 2022. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are back and provide one of the top 1-2 punches at reciever in the NFL. Austin Ekeler is an elite 3 down back, and the offensive line is solid. The offense wasn’t the problem in 2022 as they scored the 5th most points in the NFL. The problem was the defense as they only finished with a +15 Point differential. They brought in JC Jackson to be their #1 Corner, and the big splash is Khalil Mack. If he has anything left in the tank pairing him up with Joey Bosa should provide this defense with a huge lift especially in passing situations. They also replaced a very week interior on the DL. This defense should be much improved in 2022. Vegas Win Projection 10 Juiced Over at -150
Las Vegas Raiders – Vegas made the playoffs and gave the AFC champs Cincinnati a solid game and have improved their team in the off-season. Adding Davonte Adams on as a target for Derek Carr is one of the biggest moves this off-season. Darren Waller should be back healthy which along with Hunter Renfrow gives the Raiders 3 legit guys who will create huge match-up problems for opposing defenses. I really like the addition of Chandler Jones on defense to pair up with Maxx Crosby as edge rushers. They need to create pressure as the secondary is at best average, and with the opposing gunslingers in this division they won’t hold up in the back end for long. My biggest question is Josh McDaniels, who spent 10 years back as an assistant after his first head coaching gig. Is he truly an offensive guru or did Brady just make him look good? I lean toward the Brady answer to that question, and I think Rich Bisaccia got a lot out of this team after the Gruden debacle. Vegas Win Projection 8.5 Juiced Over at -135
Denver Broncos – The Broncos won 7 games in 2021 thanks to an “elite” defense that allowed the third fewest point in the NFL. Add Russell Wilson and it looks like Denver could be a contender. That being said they played a very easy schedule, let go defensive guru Vic Fangio as coach, and gutted some of the defense. Even before the off season, the underlying defensive metrics were not great. They were brutal on third down, middle of the pack in EPA, and in takeaways and sacks, and couldn’t get off the field when they needed to stop the run when trailing late in games. Without Fangio’s magic I think this defense takes a big step backwards. On offense Wilson has some talent with Jerry Jeudy leading the way along with Cortland Sutton who looks to get back on track year 2 following his ACL injury. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon should benefit from Wilson the most on this team as defenses wont be able to load up against the run. I’m also not crazy about Hackett as head coach. Much like McDaniels, his previous QB makes him look really good. Vegas Win Projection 10 Even Juice at -110.
2022 Projections
Kansas City 11-6
Los Angeles 11-6
Las Vegas 10-7
Denver 9-8
AFC West Action:
I think this is the best division in football this year top to bottom, which is what I thought about the NFC West last year and look how that turned out.
Kansas City – No Action. Variable Schedule this year is Buffalo, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay which means if they lose all 3 of those games this is likely a 9 or 10 win team.
Los Angeles – The head honcho here Kiev made a great call on LA in his preview, and I am riding it here. The Chargers have Jac, Hou, Sea, Cle, and Atl in the first 8 weeks. If they aren’t 6-2 by that point they will be a big disappointment. Play the Over 10 for 1 Unit and hedge back later to try and middle.
Las Vegas – Raiders are better than last year. Play the over 8.5 for 1.5 Units.
Denver- No Action, but lean under. I’m taking a wait and see approach. I’ve been burned by Russ before.
Also Taking a .5 Unit shot on Raiders to win division at +550.
