We have arrived at the first few days of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 178-151-2 with a 7.4% ROI as we had a huge 2021 and a slight winning campaign in 2022. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $500 for the whole season.
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NFC East
2022 Records
Philadelphia 14-3/ Dallas 12-5/ New York Giants 9-7-1/ Washington 8-8-1
Philadelphia – I underestimated Jalen Hurts last year. I loved the Philly O-Lines and D-Lines and those were as advertised. But I missed on Hurts. He showed up and could have won the MVP if he hadn’t gotten injured. Now Hurts has gotten paid and Philly had to shed some talent, but overall turnover was minimal. The Eagles also had the best draft grade according to Football Outsiders in 20 years. They reloaded on the D-Line with Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith and improved the O-Line. They were the first team in history with four players recording ten or more sacks, and they could repeat that this year. The offense returns mostly intact for a team that was third in both yards and points per game last year. The key to maintaining last years success should really just come down to staying healthy, and if they do I see a repeat of last year in a weak NFC. Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced to the Under -140, Over +110
Dallas – Like the Eagles, the Cowboys had very minimal off-season turnover of their roster from a team that won 12 games in 2022. They lost a close playoff game to the 49ers, but the fire Mike McCarthy bandwagon was rolling all season long. McCarthy has a .614 career winning percentage, and while you can claim that most of that was because of Aaron Rodgers it still puts him in rare company in the NFL. That being said, I think Dak may be in decline which could hurt that win percentage. He led the league along with Davis Mills in interceptions and did so in 3 fewer games. There are some metrics that just say he was unlucky, but the eye test for me says otherwise and he turns 30 this year so the running ability may slow some more. He did get a new weapon in Brandin Cooks if he has anything left in the tank. On defense Micah Parsons is on another level and is a favorite to win the defensive player of the year. They added Mazi Smith in the draft to fill their biggest hole in the middle of the line and aging corner Stephen Gilmore to go opposite ball hawk Trevon Diggs. They were extremely lucky in forcing fumbles being a net +12 last year, and between that and Dak’s turnovers I see a step back in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over -170, Under +140
New York Giants – Brian Daboll is one of my favorite coaches in the league. I love a passionate guy who doesn’t come across as a moron and those are hard to find. He certainly had his team outperform expectations, but the metrics say a good deal of it had to do with luck. I am not a Daniel Jones believer. I think the G-Men made a mistake in the signing of the 40 million/year deal. That being said Darren Waller should be a nice safety blanket for him since he doesn’t have a true #1 at receiver, and if he does make another step forward maybe they can navigate their way back to the post-season in the weak NFC. What will Saquon do is another big question mark, will he be motivated to get a big contract with the Giants or a new team, or just kind of coast to 2024 after what was said about his pass catching abilities? On defense I love the Bobby Okereke signing and they drafted CB Deonte Banks who was my second favorite corner in the draft. The defense should improve, but not to become a top 10 unit, and I need one more season of Jones improvement for me to become a believer in this team. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Even at -115
Washington – A pretty good overall roster with nobody to play quarterback is the story in DC. The defense was 3rd in overall yards allowed last year and they were also first in success rate allowed, which is really the reason they were able to win eight games last year. One big question mark as to whether or not they’ll improve on offense may be Eric Bieniemy as the new OC. Carson Wentz was an experiment that turned out sour quickly and now they turn to 5th round pick Sam Howell after landing nobody but Jacoby Brissett in free agency. Daniel Synder selling the team certainly has a part in what happened this off-season at the QB spot. They did spend upgrading the O-line and retained Daron Payne at DT which is huge. The draft however left a lot to be desired focusing on just the corner spot and for me it just feels like a transition year in Washington. I’d watch for new owner to be followed by a new GM and as much as I like Ron Rivera, a new Head Coach in 2024. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under -140, Over +110
2023 Predictions
Philadelphia 11-6
Dallas 9-8
New York Giants 7-10
Washington 6-11
NFC East Action:
Philadelphia – No Action. They have a fairly easy first place schedule getting Tampa and Minnesota along with KC. This team should win 11 or 12 games and I can’t put any money down here.
Dallas – Lean Under. They got lucky a lot last year, and like I said I’m down on Dak.
New York Giants – No action. This number feels right on, and even though I’m not a Daniel Jones believer he did show enough last year with the weak NFC they could certainly get to 8 or 9 wins.
Washington – No Action. Sorry, the NFC East is boring from a betting perspective for me. As much as I think there’s changes coming in DC, the Commanders defense is good enough to keep them in many games and if they get lucky like the 2022 Vikings or Cowboys they could be above .500.
