We have arrived at the midway point of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC West
2022 Records
Kansas City 14-3/ Los Angeles Chargers 10-7/ Las Vegas 6-11/ Denver 5-12
Los Angeles – If there is a year where this team finally gets over the hump and ahead of the Chiefs in this division 2023 will be it. In my opinion the only thing holding them back is Brandon Staley and a little more cohesiveness on defense. This team made history giving up a 27-0 lead in the playoffs to Jacksonville and becoming only the 4th team in history to blow that large of a lead. The Chargers are gonna Charger though as they seem to have a talented roster every year and then falter. They haven’t won the division since 2009, and have only been past the divisional round once since 1994. Their best addition may be offensive coordinator Kellen Moore who can hopefully figure out how to get the downfield passing game going again. The roster remains largely unchanged from 2022 with the biggest addition in free agency being weak side LB Eric Kendricks. This is however a talented roster on both sides of the ball that unperformed especially on defense. Look for Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James to improve upon last year. If they can fix some of their struggles in early downs against the run they will have set themselves up for success. Maybe I’m just one of those suckers who believes in this team every year, but at some point the talent has to takeover. If it doesn’t it will be time for a different coach. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over at -155, Under +125
Kansas City – Win the Super Bowl, Have a Parade, Lose a good chunk of your team. That’s how things usually go. This team actually retains a large chunk of their core and has been able to reload and get younger using the picks from the Tyreek Hill trade. The only real exception will be on the offensive line where they replace both tackles. That is a point of concern as Mahomes struggled with pressure in some instances in the past few years. The other question mark for me is Travis Kelce. Mahomes showed last year, he doesn’t need a elite WR to win. Kelce however, turns 34 this year, and while I think he’s super human at some point age catches up to everyone. If he gets hurt or isn’t at the same level from previous years this offense could sputter slightly. On defense this team was middle of the pack in 2022, but I think they over-performed based on situations and metrics and were actually much worse than the stats show. First round pick Felix Anudike-Uzomah should give them a solid upgrade at DE and the overall line is solid. Most of my concern on the defense comes in the back seven. There’s no reason to believe this team won’t be a Super Bowl contender again in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced to the Over at -125, Under -115
Denver – The Nathanial Hackett head coaching hire didn’t last a full season and Russell Wilson looked like a shell of his Seattle self in the big Broncos experiment of 2022. The hype train is rolling however again this year as Sean Payton comes in as Head Coach to bring Russ back from the dead. He will start by checking Wilson’s special treatment. Russ had a personal QB coach and an office on the same floor as coaches and execs in Denver last season. Russ seems to be ok with the changes however, and I think Payton will find some success with another shorter QB. He has a potential #1 Receiver in Jerry Jeudy who was elite in the last 6 games after returning from an ankle injury. The Broncos made three big splashes in Free agency on the lines to help getting Tackle Mike McGlinchey and Guard Ben Powers, as well as DL Zach Allen. I also like the Samaje Perine signing giving them a nice third down option. The defense, which was on the field a ton in 2022 finished 10th in DVOA. This team has an elite secondary and an above average linebacker core. If they can get some improvement upfront from Randy Gregory and Allen turns out as expected this could be a Top 5 unit in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced to the Under at -125, Over -105.
Las Vegas – Josh McDaniels looks like he is set to fail again as an NFL head coach. After jettisoning David Carr is less than ceremonial fashion last year, he’s created conflict bringing in Jimmy Garrapolo. Jimmy G is competent, but I don’t think his ceiling is high, and I think Brock Purdy was better. Kyle Shanahan agrees which doesn’t bode well for future Jimmy G improvement. He will have Josh Jacobs back on a franchise tag to tote the rock which is good for any QB that needs some help opening up the passing game. Of course Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow still provide top notch resources at the receiver spot. The roster saw one of the highest turnovers in the league this off-season. The biggest loss was top TE target Darren Waller. They invested heavily through the draft in the defensive line which was awful in 2022 with Tyree Wilson and Byron Young. They also signed three free agents who will likely start in the back seven. There’s certainly some chance for improvement this season, but I think this team is one Jimmy G injury (He seems to have one every year) away from a Top 3 pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under -150, Over +120
2023 Predictions
Los Angeles Chargers 12-5
Kansas City 11-6
Denver 10-7
Las Vegas 6-11
AFC West Action:
Los Angeles Chargers – Over 9.5, 1 Unit. Gotta lay some juice here, but I think they’ll be better and it’s time for the star players to get this team to the next level before the real big Herbert contract hits.
Kansas City – No Action. I’ve got this almost right on the number with tough at large games against Cincinnati, Philly and Jacksonville.
Denver – Over 8.5, 1 Unit. I think Payton makes a big culture change here and unless Russell is totally kaput this should hit. Also worth a sprinkle on the Broncos to win the division at around +600.
Las Vegas – Lean Under. McDaniels collapse could be on the horizon with the second most difficult schedule in the NFL.
