We have arrived at the midway point of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC South
2022 Standings
Jacksonville 9-8/ Tennessee 7-10/ Indianapolis 4-12-1/ Houston 3-13-1
Jacksonville – The Jags chose to build through the draft due to financial constraints from last off-season as they only added two players with existing NFL talent prior to camp. The big one and potentially game-breaking acquisition is Calvin Ridley who they got at the deadline in 2022. The huge 13 pick draft class included top tackle selection Anton Harrison who will step in for departed RT Jawaan Taylor. The rest of the O-Line will have some flux as starting LT Cam Robinson is facing a suspension of some time. This team should still improve offensively with Trevor Lawrence getting a second full season of Doug Pederson tutelage. The second half of last year showed us that Lawrence has the talent to be a top tier QB in the NFL. The defense is talented and young, but I don’t think played to their full potential. 2022 #1 Overall pick Travon Walker did not live up to expectations, but there are talented players there with Tyson Campbell emerging as a solid #1 CB in the league and Devin Lloyd as a top tier MLB. Finishing 26th in DVOA they’ll need to make a big leap to get Jacksonville deeper into the playoffs against the tough AFC Quarterbacks they will face in the playoffs. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Over -125, Under +105
Tennessee – This team collapsed down the stretch in 2022 due to injuries and lackluster play, losing their last seven games and blowing a four game division lead. On offense you have an aging QB in Ryan Tannenhill who outside of Derrick Henry has only lost talent across the board since arriving in Nashville. We will see if signing DeAndre Hopkins makes a difference for the offense. Tannenhill is solid, but without weapons this team became overly one dimensional in their attack down the stretch. Does Will Levis push Tannenhill for the starting roll especially if they get off to a slow start is one major question this season. The second is do they trade Derrick Henry in that same scenario? The defense last year was great against the run finishing second. They were however not very good against the pass which teams did against the Titans more than any other team in the league. They still lack depth and overall talent and Mike Vrabel coaches them into playing really good defense. I think with some talent decline here the writing was starting to show on the wall last season. On the other side of the coin, if they can stay healthy this team is only seven games removed from being a sure division winner. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced to the Over -135, Under +105
Indianapolis – Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Frank Reich, and Jeff Saturday are all gone. Bring on Anthony Richardson. I’ve been wrong on draft picks before, but I just don’t see how his passing skills translate to the NFL. Justin Fields was a much better passer coming out of college and all he’s done well so far is run. That being said, Shane Steichen did a great job developing a run heavy QB in Jalen Hurts so maybe there is hope. He doesn’t have much beyond Michael Pittman at the WR spot, but I am high on draft pick Josh Downs to play a significant role. Jonathan Taylor is still one of the most talented RBs in the league, I just don’t think he’s going to be motivated to stay after a spat with owner Jim Irsay, and I think he may get moved before the season. The defense should improve adding a returning Shaquille Leonard if he can regain his form before his back surgery. They were not awful last year allowing 334 yards per game, but they did struggle against the run. I think there are too many unknowns for the Colts, but I loved the draft outside of Richardson and they should have decent units surrounding him. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Over -135, Under +105
Houston – The Texans were bad again in 2022 finishing 31st in yards per game on offense and 30th in yards per game on defense. The last three seasons they’ve gone 11-38-1. Now they’ve brought home one of their own to turn it around in Demeco Ryans who I am extremely high on as a coach. He will bring success to this franchise, it just won’t be this year. That being said they’ve got #2 overall pick QB C.J. Stroud and #3 overall pick EDGE rusher Will Anderson to take them into the future. I’m still waiting for a recent Ohio State QB to succeed at the pro level, but I think Stroud checks a lot of boxes. They didn’t spend big on individual free agents, but they signed 24 NFL players in the off-season. Talent isn’t high at most spots on the roster, but the injury drop-off from starter to back-up at most positions should be minimal. There’s no real top weapons for Stroud at any skill position, but the receiver core of Nico Collins, John Metchie and Robert Woods should provide a group of serviceable targets combined with Dalton Schultz. The offensive line is weak and will have Stroud scrambling quite a bit. If there’s reason to be optimistic about improvement its on the defensive side of the ball with Anderson’s hype and Ryan’s coaching. That being said this team has not done enough to improve as both of their first round picks in 2022 struggled to live up to expectations. Look for much of the same in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced to the Under -135, Over +105
2023 Predictions
Jacksonville 10-7
Tennessee 8-9
Indianapolis 6-11
Houston 5-12
AFC South Action:
Jacksonville – No Action. I’m optimistic they improve as a whole, but their At-Large match-ups for first place draws Kansas City, Buffalo and San Francisco. Those keep me off the over.
Tennessee – No Action. I think the number is right on. Talent didn’t improve, but Vrabel is too good of a coach to see this team completely collapse and they could compete in a weak division.
Indianapolis – Lean Under. No many unknowns here with Richardson and Taylor. If Richardson struggles as I think he will this goes sailing under. If he’s halfway competent the roster is talented enough to win 7-9 games
Houston – Under 6.5, 1 Unit. The talent gap hasn’t been closed enough here and their 4th place schedule includes Denver and the New York Jets.
