We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
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NFC North
2021 Records
Green Bay 13-4/ Minnesota 8-9/ Chicago 6-11/ Detroit 3-13-1
Minnesota – It’s out with the old in Mike Zimmer and in with the new in Kevin O’connell and his shiny new ring from the Rams. O’connell coached Kirk Cousins in Washington and should be able to get the most out of him. I think Dalvin Cook is on his way down, but is still an elite RB, however the Vikings have some question marks at Center and Right Guard. Justin Jefferson emerged as one of the top WR options in all of the NFL last year and should get even better in 2022. I think Irv Smith at Tight End coming back from injury will add a new wrinkle and provide some serious match-up problems for opposing offenses in 2022. On defense the Vikings switch to a 3-4 scheme and add free agent Za’Darius Smith in Free agency to anchor the pass rush. The linebackers should be solid inside as well. The issues for the Vikings will be on the line and in the secondary where inexperience is rampant. I do like the talent additions of Harrison Phillips at DT from Buffalo, and Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth who they drafted. If the defense improves so will the Vikings. I think it happens. Vegas Win Projection: 9 Juiced Over -125
Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers aka The Drama Llama will come into another season in Green Bay without his favorite target in Davonte Adams who has gone to Vegas baby. MVS also left the receiving corps. It will be up to holdovers Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, who are joined in free agency by Sammy Watkins to lead the way for a trio of draft picks led by second round selection Christian Watson. The Packers are hoping Watson becomes the next Adams in their offense. A key for the Pack will be if Robert Tonyan can come back healthy sooner rather than later. The O-line is a question mark mostly on the health of David Bakhtiari. If they can piece things together Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will see plenty of action until the receivers get up to speed. On defense Kenny Clark anchors an improved D-Line with Devonte Wyatt coming on board in the draft. The linebackes lost Za’Darius Smith to the Vikings, but he only played in 2 games last year. De’vondre Campbell came on mid-year inside and was a huge success alongside Rashan Gary at LB. Jaire Alexander leads what should be an elite group of cover corners. Vegas Win Projection: 11 Juiced Over -125
Detroit – Dan Campbell is a passionate guy who makes you want to root for the Lions. However the Lions were bad. I think we see some improvement in 2022. The key will be Jared Goff is essentially playing for a contract with no guaranteed money left on his deal after this season. Goff should have a healthier offensive line with injuries behind them. The line that remained did very well last year especially in the running game with D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. T.J. Hockenson provides a bevy of mismatches for opposing teams. Amon St. Brown and Quintez Cephus (Cephus was injured in practice this week. Severity still unknown) are joined by DJ Chark and I expect this group of 3 to make some noise this year. The defense got burned for 380 Yards per game in 2021 and will have to get better to find a way to keep the Lions from a 5th straight year of double digit losses. Aidan Hutchinson was the big addition through the draft as an edge rusher, but the rest of the line and linebackers are underwhelming. The secondary has potential, but unproven starters like Jeff Okudah and injuries have made this a big problem. There is a lot of hype for the Lions, and I think they get better, but the Defense will still hold them back. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Over -135
Chicago – Not sure if anyone told the Bears, but the draft a QB with a top pick and then put no talent around him formula seems to be an unsuccessful model in today’s NFL. Justin Fields loses his biggest WR in Allen Robinson. Darnell Mooney will have to step up along with Cole Kmet to move the ball down field. David Montgomery is a solid three down back, but he runs behind a putrid O-Line who couldn’t open up holes and allowed and NFL high 58 sacks in 2021. Getting Tevin Jenkins healthy may improve it a bit. The Bears defense loses Khalil Mack, but still has Robert Quinn and Trevis Gipson up front to create plenty of havoc. Roquan Smith anchors a solid linebacker core. Jaylon Johnson is a solid #1 Corner, but the rest of the secondary was lacking, however they did spend two top picks in the draft to improve it. I expect the D to keep them in more games than some people suspect. Vegas Win Projection: 6.5 Juiced Under -150
2022 Projections
Minnesota 12-5
Green Bay 11-6
Detroit 7-10
Chicago 6-11
NFC North Action
Minnesota – I’m on the over 9 Wins 2 Units. I think Minnesota’s schedule lines up really nice including 6 of the last 8 at home against mostly inferior opponents. I could also see putting in a division win bet on them at around +275 or greater.
Green Bay – No Action. This number looks right. Variable schedule is tough with the Rams, Tampa and Tennessee which limits the upside, and I am not betting on Rodgers to get less than 11.
Detroit – No Action. Easy variable schedule with Seattle, Carolina and Jacksonville is how they are getting to 7 wins.
Chicago – No Action. Slight lean to the under here. I think this team is poised to regress, but they got to 6 wins last year without much to work with either. Granted 4 of those came without Fields running the show.
