We have arrived at the midway point of Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC North
2022 Standings
Cincinnati 12-4/ Baltimore 10-7/ Pittsburgh 9-8/ Cleveland 7-10
Baltimore – With the Ravens shopping Lamar Jackson there was some uncertainty this off-season, but $260 Million later everyone is happy and the Ravens are ready to get back to punishing opponents in 2023. The Ravens didn’t do much in Free Agency after the contract, but signed two veteran wideouts in Odell Backham Jr., and Nelson Agholor. Add Zay Jones in the draft and they all of a sudden have a group of wide-outs to be feared in the division. They should be better offensively based on talent, but OC Greg Roman retired and is replaced by Todd Monken who will likely spread this offense out. On defense they got Roquan Smith last season via trade and had a top ten unit to end the season. The defense kept them in games even after the Jackson injury last season, and if healthy should be a top unit again in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced to the Under -135, Over +105.
Cincinnati -The Bengals were in the Super Bowl two seasons ago, and were a few plays away from getting back there last season. Joe Burrow has lived up to all expectations and is the favorite to win MVP this year. Am I the only one thinking he could end up being Dan Marino 2.0? Get to the big game early and never back again. It’s probably way too early for that, as this team should compete for the AFC title each year in the near future. They grabbed the best OL in Free Agency this year in Orlando Brown. The reciever core is probably tops in the league with Ja’marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Joe Mixon took a pay cut and is still around so the offense should continue to hum along. I loved the Myles Murphy pick late in the first round to help the pass rush. The secondary is going to take a step back however losing both starting safeties. If the defense can find a way to stay a top ten unit this team should be right back in the thick of a Super Bowl push, but I think they take a step back. Vegas Win Projection: 11.5 Juiced to the Under -145, Over +115.
Pittsburgh – Kenny Pickett is clearly the man now in Pittsburgh, and Mike Tomlin coached this team up to 9 wins in 2022. Clearly Harbaugh and Tomlin are the coaching class of this division and that should give them an edge against Cincy and Cleveland. The biggest moves for Pittsburgh come on the OL, where they have overhauled and improved 4 spots in the last two seasons. Allen Robinson comes in at reciever to give Pickett another target with Diante Johnson and George Pickens. On defense they lose their best corner Cam Sutton, and replace him with Patrick Peterson who is past his prime. On defense T.J. Watt leads a unit that really turned it on in the second half of the season going 4th in DVOA after their bye leading to a 7-2 record down the stretch. They also performed well getting graded 2nd in the draft, and should have enough depth to be able to deal with some injuries. The season will come down to if Pickett can take a step forward in Year two, as they will be fighting an uphill battle in a loaded AFC. Vegas Win Projection: 8.5 Juiced to the Over -140, Under +110.
Cleveland – The Browns will get a full season from Deshaun Watson and look to improve on a 13th ranked offense in 2022. The OL is talented and they will continue to pound the rock with Nick Chubb and open up the play action passing game. Amari Cooper will be the #1 target, but talent really drops off after that. Elijah Moore may be the one that emerges as a second threat. The defense upgraded on the line via Free Agency and in the secondary. I think the biggest addition however is Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz who will look to improve on this unit that under-performed in 2022. They were 25th in rushing defense and can’t do that again if they want to compete in this division which I think is the best in the NFL. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced to the Under -135, Over +105.
2023 Predictions
Baltimore 11-6
Cincinnati 10-7
Pittsburgh 9-8
Cleveland 8-9
AFC North Action:
Baltimore – No Action. The second place schedule does them no favors with Detroit, Miami and the LA Chargers, but this team was well on the way to this over last year before the Jackson injury and should be there again. Don’t hate the +200 on the division, but could have gotten a much better number a few months ago.
Cincinnati- Under 11.5 1 Unit. The At Large schedule features Kansas City, Buffalo and Minnesota. Add that to this division gauntlet and I’m thinking they don’t get to 12.
Pittsburgh – Lean Over. If I had to bet it would be that Mike Tomlin finishes .500 or better, but I can’t quite pull the trigger.
Cleveland – Lean Under. If Watson returns to his prior form they could easily push this over, but I think the core of this team has gotten slightly worse, and I have to see it to believe it. Plus the start of their schedule is brutal.
