We have arrived at week 2 of the Pre-Season, which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
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NFC South
2021 Records
Tampa Bay 13-4/ New Orleans 9-8/ Atlanta 7-10/ Carolina 5-12
Tampa Bay – It should go without saying that if Tom Brady goes down this whole division is wide open. Bruce Arians retired with the news that Brady would comeback for one more year as he didn’t want to leave Todd Bowles in the midst of a major transition, but even with Brady still supposedly playing this year the Bucs are in flux! Brady is 45 years old, but he still led the NFL in yards and TDs last season. Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard will attempt to give him some relief through a stronger running game. That could be difficult as the O-Line through retirement and injury could have 3 new starters in the inside. Gronk is retired (again) and Chris Godwin is still recovering from an ACL, but Mike Evans will continue to be a force. I’m skeptical Julio Jones has much left in the tank, but maybe Brady will let him sip a little from his fountain of youth. On defense the secondary gave up a ton last year, but a lot of that has to do with having the lead all the time and no one being able to run on Bowles’ defense. If Devon White and Lavonte David are healthy on the inside I think we will see much of the same from this side of the ball. They will need to find a way to get more pressure home though to help out that secondary. Vegas Win Prediction: 11.5 Juiced Even -115
New Orleans – I really thought I’d come up with the Saints as one of the biggest gainers in the NFC. After doing my rankings, they weren’t quite as big of an improvement as I thought, but the possibilty does exist. The reason is simple Jameis Winston should be back healthy and showed he had made a big time step forward. The Taysom Hill experiment should be over for the most part as he will be used again like he was when Drew Brees was running the show. News came down today Alvin Kamara will likely not be disciplined by the NFL so the running game should be 100%. Michael Thomas is back in the fold after not playing since essentially 2020, and is joined by Jarvis Landry and first rounder Chris Olave. This receiving group is gonna make some noise. The O-Line is probably the weakest offensive group, but I like the foundation and I think draft pick Trevor Penning has all-pro potential. On defense they are led by Cameron Jordan who is one of the pass rushers in the game. They have had a top 4 rushing defense the last four years to go with a great pass rush. In the secondary they lost both starting safeties, but grabbed some big names in free agency in Tyrann Matthieu and Marcus Williams. Marshon Lattimore will need some help on the other side, but I think they at least didn’t take any steps backwards in the back end. Vegas Win Prediction: 8.5 Juiced over at -125
Carolina – Christian McCaffrey has not been able to stay healthy along with the Panthers offensive line. Combine that with dismal quaterback play and that was their downfall in 2021. I think Baker Mayfield gets them at least a few more wins than they had in 2021, and Matt Corral was my favorite QB coming out of college to succeed in the NFL, so I like how their draft went as well. DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson can both play, they just need someone to get them the ball. The defense was not the issue although they gave up points, a lot of those were due to the fact that the offense could not stay on the field. They were #2 in YPG allowed in 2021. The secondary is particularly strong led by Cornerback Donte Jackson. They also added LB Damien Wilson and drafted Brandon Smith to help at the weakest point in the defense. If they find a way to score I’d lookout for this team. Vegas Win Prediction: 6 Juiced over at -135
Atlanta– The Falcons are a hot mess, and didn’t improve in the off-season. They drafted a TE #1 last year in Kyle Pitts who should improve, and this year took receiver Drake London. I don’t love skill positions at the top of a rebuild when you don’t have the quarterback of the future yet on your roster. Maybe they think it is Desmond Ridder, and there is a good chance we will find out before the end of the year if that is true. Cordarelle Patterson had a nice year at running back for them and will be the bulk of their offense again in 2022 as Marcus Mariota will hold the baton at QB to start the season. The receiving core looks like the invite list to Cleveland’s Spring Training in the movie major league though. The defense gave up 365 yards per game in 2021 to go along with finishing 30th in points allowed. They won’t be much better in 2022 as they made no major acquisitions on that side of the ball outside of Cornerback Casey Heyward Jr. The only way they are winning games this year is if the turnover genie grants them three wishes every game. Vegas Win Prediction: 4.5 Juiced Even -115
2022 Projections:
Tampa Bay 12-5
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 8-9
Atlanta 4-13
NFC South Action:
Tampa Bay – No Action If Brady is healthy this team could still easily win 13 games just by outscoring every other team.
New Orleans – Over 8.5 – 1.5 Units. If they beat Tampa week 2 or Minnesota week 4, there’s a solid chance to hedge back for a middle here as well.
Carolina – Honestly this was the first futures bet I played on the NFL this year with Carolina over 5.5. Baker Mayfield is 1-2 wins better than Darnold/Newton in my eyes so if this team stays heathy I think they should hit 6 with no issues. The lines is now up to 6 or 6.5 depending on the book, and I would still play a over bet on those for 1 Unit. +1000 to win division is worth a sprinkle also.
Atlanta – No Action. They’re gonna be bad, but not sure how bad.
