We are done with Pre-Season action which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division.
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AFC East
2022 Standings
Buffalo 13-3/ Miami 9-8/ New England 8-9/ New York Jets 7-10
Buffalo -The Bills couldn’t climb the AFC mountain again in 2022, and it looks to be a challenge once in 2023. They lost their three combined games by only eight points in the regular season, and then got manhandled in the snow by Cincinnati in the playoffs. The hype train was all about the Bills last year, and quite a few people have jumped off the bandwagon, but not me. There’s some tension in the locker room with Stefon Diggs, which is my main concern with the offense. I think they improved the interior of the offensive line, and gave Josh Allen more protection. His legs didn’t miss a beat last season so I expect the QB scramble/run to be a big part of the game-plan. If they can get some more interior rushing going I think it will help out Allen even more. I also love the Dalton Kincaid draft pick late in the first as that provides a very versatile mismatch weapon at the slot or TE spot. On defense the biggest loss was Tremaine Edmunds at LB. They added pass rusher Leonard Floyd to hold down the pressure until Von Miller is all the way back. The secondary shouldn’t miss a beat. This team was the best in the regular season a year ago, and I think they will be once again in 2023. Vegas Win Projection: 10.5 Juiced to the Over at -155, Under +125
New York Jets – Is Aaron Rodgers an elite QB still in the NFL? Is he worth 3 or 4 more wins over yea with this roster? The answer is yes. This team managed to win seven games even with the worst starting QB in football in Zach Wilson. The team cleaned up in the draft in 2022 getting Breece Hall who likely would have been Rookie Of The Year if he hadn’t got hurt and #1 Receiver Garrett Wilson who did win it. They also got the Defensive Rookie Of The Year in Sauce Gardner. The offense should have a strong running game supported by a good interior line. Losing Corey Davis this last week to retirement took away a target for Rodgers, but he has a solid comfort level with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, and Mecole Hardman has still shown good flashes of talent. My only concern is protecting Rodgers in passing situations as the pass blocking has looked less than stellar this pre-season much like it did last year. On defense this group flies to the ball at every level as they finished 4th in points and yards allowed. I could see the group taking a small step back as they slightly overachieved last year. If Rodgers is still as good as I think he is this group should challenge in the division and could be Super Bowl contenders. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juice is Even at -115
Miami – The Dolphins will be an incredible offense this year if Tua is healthy. That’s a big if. Watching some of his games last year where the concussion occurred was scary stuff. The question isn’t if, it is when another one will occur. If he stays healthy 2023 the Dolphins also have a shot in this division as I believe they can score with anyone. I’m not crazy about backup Mike White if something does happen to Tua again, so only take Miami overs if you are okay with high risk Tolerance. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the top receiver duo in the league. Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert aren’t super stars, but Wilson runs downhill as well as anyone, and Mostert can make things happen in space. On defense they made some big moves getting CB Jalen Ramsey and LB Hunter Long. The biggest move on defense I think however is signing Vic Fangio as DC as he has a long and solid history of turning out great NFL defenses. If it all comes together this is the third team in the AFC East that could compete for a division title and Super Bowl Championship. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Juiced Over at -120, Under -110
New England – Mac Jones isn’t the answer. Bill Belichick is 30 wins behind Don Shula for tops all time. After this year it might be time for both of them to get a change of scenery. The Patriots are just outclassed in this division. The Pats have the hardest schedule in the league from a win totals perspective and other than getting a new OC in Bill O’Brien they did nothing to upgrade one of the worst offenses in the league in 2022. I don’t care how good Bill is at game planning on defense and making young QBs look silly they can’t keep up scoring with the better QBs in the league. In fact they had only one win in 2022 over a QB ranked in the top 16 in output and that was the Lions debacle in Foxboro a 29-0 win for the Pats against Jared Goff. The defense as mentioned will again be solid, likely a Top 5 unit, but will Bill O’Brien find a way to get Mac back on track after a huge sophomore slump? Don’t bet on it. Vegas Win Projection: 7.5 Juiced Under at -145, Over +115
2023 Predictions
Buffalo 12-5
New York Jets 11-6
Miami 10-7
New England 6-11
AFC North Action:
Buffalo – Lean Over. I still think this is a great team, but this division is brutal and the schedule is tough.
New York Jets – Over 9.5 -115 1 Unit. If you’re a gambling man wait until the Week 7 Bye week to bet it as they start off with a brutal six game stretch and you should get a better price. I think with a healthy Rodgers this should go over with Atlanta, Houston and Cleveland as their 4th place schedule. I don’t hate the looks at the division at +250 or the AFC at +1000 either.
Miami – No Action. It’s all about Tua. I don’t trust he stays healthy, but if he does I’d think they go over.
New England – Lean Under. A little too much juice for me to tolerate here especially since they could very easily be the best last place team in the NFL. It’s a really tough schedule, but Bill seems to find a way to compete.
