NFL Futures Overview

July 12, 2022

152

Edits/adds in red:

NFL Futures:

Bears under 6.5 (+110), 3 units

I just can’t see the Bears winning 7 games. Seven is a lot in a division with the Packers, an improving Lions team where every sharp NFL bettor I know likes them to go over in their wins, and the Vikings, a team that I’m bullish on their improvement this year under new coach Kevin O’Connell. The Bears just don’t have enough firepower on offense and without Mack, who they sent to the Chargers, this is one of the most talent-poor rosters in the NFL. Too much on Justin Fields’ shoulders.

Falcons under 4.5, 2 units
I think this team will be really, really bad, period. Defense, offense, coaching, etc, and there’s evidence that both Carolina and NO could be better than some think. Oh and then there’s Brady and Tampa Bay. UNDER. SAD.

Cowboys under 10.5, 1 unit
There’s also evidence that the NFC East will be considerably better this year, especially when it comes to Philly. I’m buying the hype on the Eagles that, in the least, they won’t be an easy out as a contender to win the division, and my Giants, for what it’s worth, are showing a ton of buy-signs right now. Dallas typically stumbles late in the season, so don’t be afraid to take a mid-season under if this gets inflated.

Packers under 11.5, 1.5 units
Here’s my thing about Green Bay. I realize they have an elite running game, elite defensive players, and arguably the best player in the NFL in Aaron Rodgers. But sometimes that’s not enough. The long, painstaking pattern of the Packers performing well in the regular season and then faltering in the playoffs is getting very old; for their players, coaches, fans, and staff. The Vikings should be much more competitive and the Lions might have some extra “feisty” in them this year with Dan Campbell coaching in season #2. The Packers could very likely win 11 games, but I have to anticipate an under.

Vikings over 8.5, 3 units
I’ve talked about it already but yea, I like Minnesota more than usual. A new coach with great experience from LAR should reinvigorate a team that’s truly super talented in a lot of ways that matter – a QB that can get it done, a top 5 RB, a top 5 WR, and playmakers on defense. This is the year Minnesota gets very competitive, IMO.

Steelers over 7.5, 3 units
Hey look, it’s the marketplace undervaluing Pittsburgh, AGAIN! We’ve seen Pittsburgh win consistently with far worse QBs than what they have this year, and I’m not so certain that Kenny Pickett is as pedestrian as people may think. Another top 5 defense, a tough-ass RB, and superior coaching = Ws. I realize how good the AFC North is, but that’s nothing new and all Tomlin does is execute winning seasons.

Jags over 6, -130 at BetOnline, to win 4 units

I’ve given this a ton of thought and now I’m pulling the trigger. Jacksonville has a VERY questionable division, the Titans will regress, the Texans aren’t scary, and the Colts are a giant mystery at this point. With one of the easier schedules in the NFL, Jacksonville has an adult in the room, new talent like Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and don’t look now but Travis Etienne looks like he’s healthy and ready to take over the league. They have a young defense but they finally have an adult in the room in Douggy Pederson. We lost some initial value, but we’re still taking the Jags to go over 6.

Panthers over 5.5, lean

49ers under 9.5, lean

Texans under 4.5, lean