Some people liked my last NFL Report (four people), which were the results from the previous week to show essentially that the money was still sharp so far this year. Now, that report was done the Tuesday after those games, these numbers- which are dynamic, are as of Thursday morning for the upcoming week.
Despite my inability to get my BEAUTIFUL, NEAT -yet rudimentary- Excel charts on the site, I am posting (best I know how) to throw some s*** against the wall for those who like a simple summary of what the market likes so far this week. These charts may get cut off on phone views, so check it out from a computer if you get a chance. These are numbers I got from the “Wagertalk Live Odds” screen, which I think are the most accurate.
How their algorithms are set up, how truly accurate they are, how much of it are head fakes by people with a ton of money… I don’t know. So take it with a grain of salt. But, my last report did show the money hit 11-5 on totals and 10-6 on the spread back in week 4. I did not account for the popular plays that week and how that did. I need to throw some charts in for that side as well down the road.
What I have here is how much of the tickets are being reported on the SPREAD versus the money, and ranked them by how much of a difference there is between the two.
SPREADS…
| TEAM | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. |
| LAR | 73% | 93% | 20% |
| HOU | 63% | 82% | 19% |
| PIT | 67% | 81% | 14% |
| CLE | 63% | 74% | 11% |
| BUF | 84% | 93% | 9% |
| NE | 79% | 87% | 8% |
| KC | 79% | 86% | 7% |
| DET | 64% | 68% | 4% |
| MIN | 52% | 54% | 2% |
| LAC | 96% | 98% | 2% |
| JAX | 51% | 51% | 0% |
| GB | 69% | 69% | 0% |
| DEN | 71% | 52% | -19% |
| DAL | 71% | 51% | -20% |
For the spread chart, we see 20% more of the money is on the Rams to cover than there are tickets saying as much. And there is actually 20% more money on the other side of the Dallas game to cover.
TOTALS…
| GAME | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. |
| BUF/ TEN | o60% | u68% | 128% |
| SEA/ PIT | u63% | o57% | 120% |
| DAL/ NE | o81% | o99% | 18% |
| HOU/ IND | o82% | o95% | 13% |
| ARI/ CLE | u80% | u90% | 10% |
| MIN/ CAR | u72% | u78% | 6% |
| LAR/ NYG | u77% | o83% | 6% |
| GB/ CHI | u94% | u99% | 5% |
| MIA/JAX | o80% | o89% | 5% |
| CIN/ DET | u64% | u67% | 3% |
| LAC/ BAL | o80% | o80% | 0% |
| KC/ WAS | o83% | o82% | -1% |
| TB/ PHI | o57% | o52% | -5% |
| LVR/ DEN | u84% | u64% | -20% |
For the TOTALS chart, we see actually 128% more money on the UNDER than tickets are on the OVER in the Buffalo/ Tennessee game. For the Raiders game, we actually have 20% more money on the OVER than the tickets that are heavy on the UNDER.
In the last report I did, I showed how the money was different than the tickets. And I showed how the side the money was on the right side for the most part. Better than I did that week and I had a decent week that week. Take this info as you will. For me, I look at it. And I have my own opinions. Market info does factor into my handicap, but it is not everything. For example, it is funny at times how a 99% match of tickets and money on a game doesn’t hit (NE v. TB anyone?). Anyways, for you four people out there, enjoy and good luck out there!
