Week 6 Market Recap
A brief summary before we look at what the market looks like for NFL Week 7. Let’s look at what the market did last week. In my last report, we looked last Wednesday at the spreads and totals market. As of Sunday the market moved on many games and totals.
In case you’re wondering… here’s last Wednesday’s chart I made, with a typo on New England game (can’t figure out which game those numbers were actually from, sorry about that). It was late and I was getting a little “tired and emotional” when I wrote that, that’s an English term, look it up. This chart outlines the percentage of tickets vs. money and the difference between the two. Then, the chart lists if the money difference was correct, then if the popular tickets actually won. All numbers are based on what I pulled off of “Wagertalk Live Odds” screen (the most accurate I’ve found). As of last Sunday… for the spreads…
| TEAM | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. | $ MOVE ? | TIX? |
| LAR | 73% | 93% | 20% | Y | Y |
| HOU | 63% | 82% | 19% | N | N |
| PIT | 67% | 81% | 14% | N | N |
| CLE | 63% | 74% | 11% | N | N |
| BUF | 84% | 93% | 9% | N | N |
| NE | 79% | 87% | 8% | N | Y |
| KC | 79% | 86% | 7% | Y | Y |
| DET | 64% | 68% | 4% | N | N |
| MIN | 52% | 54% | 2% | Y | Y |
| LAC | 96% | 98% | 2% | N | N |
| JAX | 51% | 51% | 0% | Y | Y |
| GB | 69% | 69% | 0% | Y | Y |
| DEN | 71% | 52% | -19% | Y | N |
| DAL | 71% | 51% | -20% | N | Y |
And Monday, Spreads… post-Week 6, if you were curious about the final market numbers…
| TEAM | TIX % | $ % | $ Diff. | $ Diff ? | TIX ? |
| LVR | 58% | 80% | 22% | Y | Y |
| HOU | 53% | 73% | 20% | N | N |
| DET | 63% | 67% | 4% | N | N |
| MIA | 50% | 53% | 3% | N | Y |
| LAC | 55% | 56% | 1% | N | N |
| LAR | 75% | 76% | 1% | Y | Y |
| MIN | 53% | 53% | 0% | Y | Y |
| DAL | 64% | 63% | -1% | N | Y |
| PIT | 66% | 65% | -1% | Y | N |
| GB | 64% | 60% | -4% | N | Y |
| BUF | 62% | 56% | -6% | Y | N |
| CLE | 63% | 56% | -7% | Y | N |
| KC | 81% | 72% | -9% | N | Y |
| TB | 65% | 52% | -13% | Y | N |
Different buybacks on different games but the results were actually the same. The Wednesday/ early week (“Sharp”) money went 6-8 on the week and the popular (“Public”) money didn’t do much better only going 7-7. The buybacks by the end of the week only resulted with one more win for the money (Sharp) differences, taking them to 7-7 on the week. The buybacks could be the influence of larger public money coming in on Game Day, with more states legalizing. That’s something I’m trying to differentiate.
I’ve been hearing that because a lot of the favorites covered, the public must have killed it. I don’t know about that. Not according to these numbers. The public only did one game better. Sports gambling is not easy, for the Pros or Joes, either way, it’s fun to follow. I could post the normally sharper Totals market, but it shows the same. No doubt, Week 6 was not a great week for the Sharps.
Week 7 Market
Now, for the upcoming NFL Week 7, a summary of what the market looks like of late Wednesday for those who like charts and numbers…
SPREADS…
| TEAM | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. % |
| DET | 59% | 79% | 20% |
| PHI | 57% | 72% | 15% |
| NYG | 52% | 65% | 13% |
| GB | 50% | 61% | 11% |
| DEN | 67% | 74% | 7% |
| NE | 83% | 89% | 6% |
| IND | 57% | 63% | 6% |
| ATL | 50% | 50% | 0% |
| NOR | 56% | 56% | 0% |
| KC | 66% | 61% | -5% |
| HOU | 75% | 70% | -5% |
| TB | 62% | 55% | -7% |
| CIN | 61% | 50% | -11% |
TOTALS…
| GAME | TIX % | MONEY % | $ Diff. |
| HOU/ ARI | U58% | U89% | 31% |
| CIN/ BAL | O60% | O90% | 30% |
| WAS/GB | U55% | O72% | 17% |
| CHI/ TB | U65% | O51% | 16% |
| DET/ LAR | O85% | O99% | 14% |
| IND/ SF | U61% | U73% | 12% |
| KC/ TEN | O72% | O83% | 11% |
| PHI/ LVR | O85% | O88% | 3% |
| NOR/ SEA | U96% | U99% | 3% |
| CAR/ NYG | U100% | U100% | 0% |
| ATL/ MIA | U86% | U84% | -2% |
| DEN/ CLE | U61% | O52% | -13% |
| NYJ/ NE | U95% | U72% | -23% |
Remember, the market is not always correct. This is how casinos are built. Best to make your own power ratings, or find power ratings. If you don’t have any, I can make mine available. I have preferences to how I make my lines that uses a variety of factors. But generally, I compare my lines to the markets and if both match- it works out the majority of times! Of course, sports are random and 53% or more are very good seasons. Best of luck in Week 7!
Follow more of my plays on Action Network App (although that app is frustrating at times) at kris_lundborg and Patreon is coming by college basketball season for those interested. Either way, let’s make some money and have some fun!!!
