It was nice taking a day off yesterday (although I didn’t totally take a day off, just ask my premium customers), but now I’m back and I’m back with a vengeance! I have free picks in UFC, MLB, and NFL Preseason for your big Saturday slate– enjoy!
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Seahawks +5.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The Seattle defense has a lot to prove and a lot to improve on this year, while the Broncos have, let’s face it, one of the more questionable QB situations in the NFL. While they try to figure that out, this line is heavily favoring Denver under the premise that they’ll do more to win this game because of their lack of offensive prowess. I get that, but the Seahawks are at home and full of young untapped potential on their roster. Not only that but it goes without say– 5.5 is a ton of points for an exhibition game. I’ll ride the dog here.
Cowboys -3.5 (-110), 2 units: One of the most shallow rosters in the NFL squares up against one of the most talented offenses in the NFL Saturday in the battle of Texas. I know– Dak won’t play and I’m sure Dallas will rest plenty of their starters for plenty of this game– but the Cowboys need something to feel positive about right now. With injury concerns looming over Dak’s 2021 season and a coach in Mike McCarthy that clearly doesn’t have the influence over his team that he wants (even the over-production of Hard Knocks can’t hide that), I think the Cowboys will put in more considerable effort in this contest. The line is daring us to take the ‘Boys and I’ll follow suit.
Giants/Athletics No Run in First Inning (-130), 1.3 units: Sean Manaea (3.77 ERA, 1.23 WHIP over 133.2 innings) has had his fair share of challenges this year but the inconsistent Athletics’ offense needs him and other starters to hold the team on their shoulders. The most recent versions of Manaea, one that’s allowed 15 runs in his last 3 starts in just over 11 innings, isn’t someone you’d want to bet an NRFI or under on. I think this is a good spot for some positive regression, though. He still maintains an xERA and xFIP under 4.00 and in April, June and July he had an 2.42 average ERA. He’s also facing a San Francisco lineup that’s gone cold the last week, ranking in the bottom 3rd in nearly all major offensive categories. I don’t know if he’ll hold up this whole game but at home, against the Giants’ ace in Kevin Gausman, I like the first inning to go scoreless.
Diamondbacks/Rockies under 11.5 (EVEN), 1.5 units: I’m going against the grain in this one and betting on the under. Zac Gallen and Kyle Freeland both have shaky games from time to time but they’re better than some of the numbers indicate. Each thrower still maintain an xERA right at the 4.00 mark and while an explosion of offense is always a concern at Coors Field, the under is 10-3 in Rockies last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter. I’ll take a great number and an even better value at even money.
