Great start so far to the young NFL season as we sit at 8-4-1 with a few plays left for Monday night.
Looking at one of tonight’s Monday night match-ups for our Free Play as the Saints roll into Charlotte to take on the Panthers. The weather looks good with with 75 degrees and sunny skies. Light variable winds at 6 mph expected.
Current lines sit at the Saints -3 with it getting pushed to -120 at some books so this could hit 3.5 in some places before game time. Saints -175 ML and Panthers +155. The total is at 39.5.
The Saints edged out the Titans by a point at home in week 1 as Mike Vrabel played for the cover. The offense wasn’t overly impressive as they really struggled to run the ball against the Titans. That being said that was the MO of most teams against the Titans in 2022 who struggled much more mightily against the pass. Derek Carr looked comfortable in the passing attack racking up 305 Yards on 33 attempts. His receiving core with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and a healthy Michael Thomas present all sorts of match-up problems for opposing defenses. Their defense looked solid holding Tennessee to 285 total yards and intercepting Ryan Tannenhill three times. They should be able to replicate that script against the Panthers woeful offense.
The Panthers were a two touchdown loser to the Falcons Week 1 despite out-gaining them by 60 yards. Two Bryce young picks and three total turnovers did them in as they were forced in the second half to get away from their game script of running the football. They did have the fourth highest success rate Week 1 rushing the ball, but I think this Saints defense that held Derrick Henry to 63 yards will be a tougher task for them. Bryce Young threw the ball 38 times, but only managed 146 yards which is a paltry 3.84 yards per attempt. The Panthers defense did look good against the Falcons and got stuck defending a very short field following both Bryce Young INTs. I think they will be tough against the Saints running game, but will struggle more this week against Carr and his elite group of receivers than they did against Desmond Ridder. Also they lost starting top CB Jaycee Horn this week who went on IR so matching up with those Saints wideouts will be even tougher.
Let’s break it down. Everything says we should be on the Panthers here from a history standpoint. Early season divisional game. Low scoring expected. Home team getting a Field goal or even 3.5. Sometimes you have to throw history out the window and look at what you’ve seen on the field. Yes, one week is a small sample size, but looking at the Panthers defensive success rate last year and what they improved on in the off-season I don’t see them having the same level of success against the Saints as they did against the Falcons. The Jaycee Horn injury is huge, and if they want to slow down Carr they will need to find a way to get pressure on him up the middle and interrupt his rhythm. More importantly for me in this handicap is the Panthers lackluster offense. Young could not push the ball downfield at all. When your tight end leads the team in receiving with 5 catches for 41 yards you are going to struggle to stretch the defense and help the rushing attach. D.J.Chark is banged up, but expected to play. Adam Thielen is past his prime and has not found any chemistry with Young so far. Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard have to be effective for this team to have a chance and the game has to stay within striking distance for them not to abandon the running game. The Saints will not allow that to happen. Bryce Young cannot carry this team to a victory and I think the Saints find enough big plays in this one to force him to try and do that. I’ve got the Saints tonight in what I think will be a 27-10, 24-13 type of contest. Who Dat!
Official Play: Saints -3
