Indianapolis vs Kansas City -5 O/U 57
Josh McDaniels? Who the hell is he? You have to give it up to Frank Reich for the amazing job that he has done there winning their first playoff game on the road with ease. The Colts are arguably the hottest team in the NFL next to the Eagles. Now the Colts have to face arguably the best team in the NFL in the KC Chiefs. Now one thing that the Colts have going for them is their defense has really stepped it up since being healthy. Since November 11th they have held teams to an average of 15.6 points per game. On the other hand we all know that KC has the best offense in the league at 426 yards per game. Their big problem is really their defense allowing a second most 406 yards per game. A match-up key to this game that could favor the Chiefs is that the Colts allow the most yards against tight ends at 77 per game so not good facing a guy like Travis Kelcey. Find a Kelcey Prop maybe for this game. On the other hand. Kansas City gives up the second most touchdowns to tight ends at 10 this year so think a little about Ebron as well. I have the Colts losing to the Chiefs 26 – 22 but that doesn’t really factor in how hot the Colts have been over the last few weeks. I also don’t love how KC finished the season or Andy Reid’s playoff records. It is so easy for me to see the Colts scoring a garbage TD here to cover this spread if they do not win it outright. I can’t go chiefs but my play here is the colts but being in a cold weather stadium I much prefer the under.
Under 57 lean Colts +5.5
Dallas vs LA Rams -7 O/U 49.5
Congratulations to Jason Garrett for prolonging his Job for at least 1 more year. Now I do not think that it is a good thing for Cowboy fans but it is what it is. One thing that you have to appreciate is how much Amari Cooper and tight end Blake Jarwin has meant to Zeke opening up the running game. Another thing that we have to look at is that the Rams actually rank second worst this year against tight ends allowing 67 yards per game. Now we know that the Rams statistics wise has the second best offense at 422 yards per game but their defense is not good against the run allowing a 10th worst 122 yards per game which feeds into the Cowboys strength. We know the coaching advantage has to go to the Rams here but at the same time the Boys have had a harder schedule than the Rams and maybe even had a harder division. The Rams are scary good when they are getting to the Quarterback and throwing the ball to Gurly, but can Leighton Vander Esch and that fierce defense contain him enough to cover. I think so. I have the Rams winning 25-21 hear and I am not afraid to sprinkle that shit.
Cowboys +7 and lean under 49.5
LA Chargers vs New England Patriots -4 O/U 47
Ah the Patriots. We have the best QB in the league with Tom Brady and he is also the oldest quarterback in the league at 41 years old. New England is 6-2 ATS at home and the Chargers are 8-1 on the road which we covered last week. The problem with New England is that they are a bit decimated and a shell of themselves over the last few years. There is no Legarret Blount to pound the ball on short yardage and no Danny Amendola to bail them out on sneaky plays either. Josh Gordon is done for the year for testing positive again and I also think that Gronk is beat up beat up and it shows this year. New England D has been pretty good again doing just enough to win a lot of games but they cannot sack the QB well ranking second to last in sacks per game at 1.9. Chargers are much better at sacks since Bosa has been back ranking at 3.7 sacks per game over the last 3 and a 10th best 2.7 for the year. I think the Chargers have gotten better since the mid season and the Patriots have became worse. A key for me here is that I think the Patriots have had the easiest schedule in the League this year while the Chargers are middle of the pack. If the Chargers are smart here they blitz brady a lot and play man press coverage against New Englands small WRs. I have the Patriots winning 23.5 to 21 from a numbers perspective but they are a lot closer on a neutral field. Like Chargers +4 and lean under 47.
Chargers +4 and lean under 47
Philadelphia vs New Orleans -8 O/U 50.5
Fly Eagles fly. Well Maybe God does like the Eagles being that they were the biggest underdog last week winning against my Bears because they did not deserve it. Their morning paper even said Clank you for the win. I know that I am bitter about this game but the better team really lost. The Eagles first Touchdown drive was comprised of pure penalties with a touchy pass interference call against Prince Amukamara, an unnecessary roughness penalty on Adrian Amos and a too many men on the field penalty. The Eagles scored when there were only 10 Bears on the field. Their last TD was made from Foles side arming a throw perfectly to Golden Tate against Adrian Amos which i do give them credit for but at the same time, Amos needs to jump that pass rather than follow Tate down the sideline. Mitch played a good game at the end but started off not audibling out of plays to quick slants and flats when he saw the Blitz and I thought he could have checked down a bit more rather than throwing the ball in the dirt. The Bears out-gained the Eagles by over 50 yards and fizzled out in the red zone. Dumb mistakes costed this Bears team and the ultimate dumbest of all mistakes was keeping a Kicker who missed 11 kicks this year. Parkey kicked the ball way to low and left making a standard 6 foot guy easily block it at the line of scrimage. I actually think that the tip may have helped the ball almost go in the uprights but the bears were to stubborn to see their greatest weakness who also costed them the game vs Miami and therefore home field advantage. Ok, enough of me bitching. The Saints are the real deal this year and it is like I said before the season started. Drew Breese needs that last Superbowl to cement him as equals with Peyton Manning, Big Ben and closer to Tom Brady. The big difference you will see with Breese over Mitch Trubisky is that he is not green and knows how to expose the Eagles weaknesses in their secondary and will do so right from the start. It is hard to come up with true algorithmic numbers for the Saints since they have been destroying teams and running the clock out at the end but mine with the garbage time adjustment show New Orleans winning 28-20. I think the Eagles are a bit beat up from last week so I like the Saints first half -4 and lean -8
Lean Saints -8 and Saints First half -4
Teaser – New Orleans to -2 with Indianapolis to +11
