NFL Preseason Football is right around the corner and there is no better way then to start preparing the season than looking at some data. Now, it is pretty well known that betting preseason football is quite a bit different than during regular season football due to coaching changes, quarterback changes, preseason goals, shorter pre-season, new coordinators and maybe the most important factors in motivation. Coaching philosophy is the single most important factor when handicapping pre-season football and it is imperative that we know what some of these coaches did in the past to try and accurately predict the future.
Since the 2019 NFL football season, there have been a lot of coaching changes and no preseason games due to Covid so many of the coaches this year do not have any data points. My philosophy for betting games with coaches that have limited data is to stay away in general with a potential exception in the first week where new coaches in general sometimes want to start their season out on a positive note with a win. This is not a hard rule, because some coaches do not care, but it is best to try to avoid fading them unless they are playing against one of the bulls that we will discuss.
Getting back to the most important aspect for handicapping the NFL preseason, it is great to have the data on these coaches. It is also important to understand that we need a good sample size to start making determinations on what these coaches are more prone to do. I personally half to have at least 8 games played or 2 seasons of pre-season football to make a determination. As said earlier, some coaches are very bullish on winning games that have 0 significance to what their record will be at the end of the season, and some coaches do not care whatsoever and will instead be looser with their play calling, and looser on who they put in to play the game. Coaches that want to win will play a lot of their good 1st, 2nd and 3rd string players and determine if their lower tier players will make the team during OTAs. They also will in mainly stick to their main playbook without fear of showing their hand in the preseason. Other coaches that do not care at all about winning will tend to play their worst players to determine if they will make the team during the preseason games rather than in practice or OTAs. These “bearish” coaches will also try out a lot of new plays during the games that were created in the offseason or were never a factor in their playbook in the previous years.
Most winning coaches who will be paying my bills:
- Mike Zimmer at 20-5 at 80% – Losing is for suckers!
- John Harbaugh at 37-12 at 76% – All he does is win win win no matter what!
- Jon Gruden at 37-17 at 69% – Winning football games is like Child’s Play.
The most losing coaches who will also help pay some bills are:
- Mike Vrabel at 2-6 at 25% – Why do things that you can put off until later?
- Matt Nagy at 3-6 at 33% – How can we win if Ryan Pace is picking our players?
- Andy Reid at 39-45 at 46% – If cheeseburgers are not involved than why bother?
When looking at coaching records, it is also very important to look at how they approach the preseason. Now I know that we only have 3 preseason games this year and here on out for the foreseeable future, but It is still important to know what these coaches do in the beginning, the middle and at the end. For example. Jon Harbaugh is 12-1 in game ones but only 7-5 at game fours. Maybe be a little more careful with that. Also, Bill Belichick is 66% at 14-7 on game ones and only 8-12 in game fours. On the flip side, Mike Tomlin is only 7-8 in game one but 8-5 in game fours. If you want an extra edge in your handicapping, looking at these week to week records could certainly give you an edge.
I know what you are thinking. Why are you giving me coaching records per game rather than straight ATS? Well, the reason for this is that preseason spreads are usually very small due to the fact that the best teams are not always trying to win and the worst teams might have some more skin in the game when it comes to QB competition. The winning team usually covers, so motivation can be read quite easily on some of these teams these coaching records.
A few things to keep in mind for 2021 is that the preseason schedule has been switched to only 3 games. Even though it is a big change, I do not think that it factors in much to what these coaches do with respect to their history in the in the first game, the middle game(s), and in the last game. I think that in the future we will add weeks two and three together to treat it as one game.
In summary, it can certainly be profitable to bet preseason football if you understand how some of these coaches approach their season juxtaposed with what some of these other teams want to accomplish. If you have any questions about this, feel free to tweet me @OBKiev or @TheOddsBreakers.
