The NFL is officially back! You may have heard me say it on my podcast or in my articles here at TheOddsBreakers, but the NFL is BY FAR my favorite and my sharpest sport. I know I’ve had plenty of success in the NBA this year (58% over 350 picks) and recently in baseball (12-2 this week), but I’m counting on an even more lucrative football season. Let’s get it started in the preseason where, yes indeed, you can certainly handicap these games and find plenty of opportunity. Onto the picks!
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Falcons -1 (-105), 1.5 units: I like the Falcons side Friday night for several reasons. Firstly, it’s pretty clear that Mike Vrabel doesn’t care too much about the preseason. Vrabel is 2-6 in his 2 preseasons with the Titans and their offense doesn’t look that different, besides Julio Jones of course. At 32, the time is NOW for Jones to get a ring on a winning team. As of this morning there are no reports on if he’ll play or not, but we do know that Tannehill will be limited and Derrick Henry will not play. Vrabel has little to prove with an offense that exploded last year, ranking 4th in passing efficiency and 3rd in running efficiency according to Warren Sharp’s NFL preview. While they have plenty of new additions on defense, which let them down on plenty occasions last year, it’s reasonable to assume that they want to protect and not over-work potential game-changing players like Caleb Farley (rookie from VA Tech, drafted 22nd overall), former Steeler Bud Dupree, Janoris Jenkins and others. The Falcons, meanwhile, have a lot to prove this year. New coach Arthur Smith, previously an assistant coach for the very same Titans, will likely use the preseason to gauge his team’s talent and test his schemes. This is all very on par with what any new coach would do, but it seems even more relevant for Atlanta. For years now the Falcons have been a team filled with talent but unable to take advantage and convert that talent into wins. Matt Ryan is locked into the QB1 role but there’s a legit competition going on for the #2 role between AJ McCarron and Feleipe Franks. It’s also a good first-look for Smith to examine his offensive line. Much to the chagrin of many an NFL pundit, the Falcons chose to align with Matt Ryan for another year, not draft a QB (instead they drafted Kyle Pitts in the first round, who should be fun to watch), and invest even more in an offensive line that didn’t fare well in 2020. Multiple draftees from the past 2 years will get a chance to work themselves into the rotation and try-out Atlanta’s new offensive front. At home, behind a new coach who probably cares about beating his former team way more than Vrabel cares about defending his, I’m on the Falcons tonight.
Giants (+115), 1.5 units: Reports out of Jets camp on #2 overall pick Zach Wilson are a bit muddled. Apparently he really sucked in a recent scrimmage, throwing for less than 50% and tossing 2 INTs. Others still feel there’s plenty to like about Wilson’s profile and potential, despite being on a team with a first-year coach and one of the most shallow rosters in the NFL. In Warren Sharp’s NFL preview, the Jets’ position rankings are the following (it ain’t good): QBs: 29th, Offensive Line: 24th, Running Backs: 32nd, Receivers: 29th, Front 7: 21st, and Secondary: 31st. While some may find this as a reason to play on the Jets in the preseason since they have so much to figure out, I don’t think it’ll result in quality play, at least not in the first game or two. On the other side of the field, we learned last year that Joe Judge is a defensive coach. This isn’t much surprise coming from the Belichik tree and since he previously served as a Special Teams coach, but his focus on a tough, hard-nosed defensive style seems to be working. The Giants were a top 10 defense in a slew of different categories last year, and that was without a dominant front 7 like the Giants we know from the past. Though not able to affect or sack the quarterback as much as they would have liked, the Giants are stacked in their secondary and probably only got better this offseason. NYG’s selection of UCF’s Aaron Robinson in the third round of this year’s draft added to even more depth in their secondary after signing free agent Adoree Jackson in the offseason from Tennessee. Daniel Jones won’t play Saturday, which isn’t a big shock, but the Giants have veteran Mike Glennon and 3rd year quarterback Clayton Thorson. Glennon clearly owns the #2 spot behind Danny Dimes and that’s a good thing for this game– we’re assuming he’ll lead the Giants for most of this contest. After Wilson, the Jets have a bunch of late-round, inexperienced quarterbacks and things could get really ugly at that point, especially against a Giants defense that’s accruing more talent and depth. The ol’ battle of New York (New Jersey, in actuality) will go to an undervalued Giants team if you’re asking me. And you are, aren’t you? Bet the Giants.
Seahawks/Raiders over 37.5 (-110), 1 unit: Just a one unit play here because it is the preseason after all, but these are two teams who come into 2021 with little reason to believe they’ll look much different. That means they’ll be very efficient on offense and yea, not so much on defense. These are also two coaches in Pete Carrol and Jon Gruden who historically care about the preseason way more than most. Carrol’s all-time record in these exhibition games is 25-15, while Gruden is a solid 38-16. And it makes sense. Carrol and Gruden are like little kids when they’re on a football field– they love to compete, yell, run around, smell the grass, sniff smelling salts, smack players on the ass– okay, you get it. They get excited. They’ll be pumped to play, especially with a crowd, and that should pump up these two high energy teams and result in plenty of offense. Take the over.
