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Packers vs Cowboys -7 O/U 50.5
This should be a great game with some storylines. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy gets to have an opportunity to take the team out of the playoffs that fired him a few years back. The Packers on the other hand probably do not want to lose to their X coach. The high total in this game pretty much sums it up. There should be some scoring. Now on the Green Bay side of things, they went on a hell of a run to make the playoffs at the end of the year. Now, before Packer backers get too excited, we have to note that the Packers last 3 games that they won to get in were against the Panthers, the Vikings, and the lowly Chicago Bears with help from home field ref Carl Cheffers. Seeing the Packers lose at the Giants and home against the Buccaneers two weeks before that wasn’t much fun for them. Jordan Love has looked good when not under pressure, but that might all change today when Micah Parsons comes all up in his face. The Cowboys haven’t showed much weakness when playing at home, and they certainly have beaten up a lot of teams. In saying that, I have to give some respect to Matt LeFleur who I think is a great coach and maybe the Packers only advantage in this game.
I have the Cowboys -7 here based on strong home field metrics. The Packers certainly looked great the last few weeks but they are still weak against the run at 22nd in rush EPA and 23rd in pass EPA isn’t great either. Dallas is more battle tested and should win this game. Dem Boyz have a .4 net yard per play advantage over Green Bay and it’s .7 from home/road splits. Do I want to lay seven here in a big game? I have the Cowboys winning this game 31-21. It’s hard to completely trust Dak, but I think the better play is to look for some props. The total has this game going over 50 points. The Packers will be keying in on Ceedee Lamb so that should leave Brandon Cooks wide open for some explosive plays. Let’s look at him today to have a day.
Prop: Brandon Cooks over 41.5 receiving yards – 1 star
Teaser continued from yesterday’s play: Texans to +8.5 with the Cowboys to -1 – 3 stars.
Lean Cowboys -7
Lean over 50.5 points
