Super Bowl 58 is finally amongst us in Las Vegas Nevada! What an amazing place to host the final game! This is a very interesting handicap because both teams last week had to have some luck in order to advance. The 49ers had a long pass bounce off of a defender, setting up an easy score, as well as a very timely fumble, while the Chiefs faced a very incompetent Ravens team with no run game, a QB that could not hit water falling out of a boat, and some officiating variance erroring on their side. If you look at the whole, I would say that the Chiefs had a very easy road to the Super Bowl getting a broken down Dolphins team, a battered Bills team, and what I said about the Ravens. The 49ers had to play two good teams at the very top of their game.
I feel like the best way to approach this handicap is looking for advantages for each team. Gonna start with the pushes.
- Both defensive lines have their issues against the run with the 49ers ranking 26th in opponent rush EPA at 4.3 yards per attempt and the Chiefs at 28th at 4.5 yards per attempt.
- From a pass defense, I also have to say that they are pretty close with the Chiefs ranking 3rd in opponent pass EPA and the 49ers ranking 6th.
- Both the defensive lines and offensive lines have their strengths and weaknesses.
Let’s start with the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have a slight head coach advantage with Reid who has schemed against all of the teams in the NFL and has won the big games. I will say that Kyle isn’t too far behind, but he has choked away big games in the past as we all know with Super Bowl 54 and as an OC with Atlanta. Has he learned his lesson?
- The Chiefs will have a pretty big defensive coordinator advantage with Steve Spagnola against Steve Wilks. This is the biggest discrepancy on the Chiefs side.
- Even though Brock Purdy is first in offensive quarterback EPA to Mahomes at 9th this year, I still have to give an advantage to Mahomes looking at his true skill and huge experience.
- The Chiefs should be able to run the ball if they play it smart and and go towards defensive end Chase Young, but I will say that KC usually pound Pacheco up the middle which isn’t a smart idea running at Hargrave and Miller.
- The Chiefs rank 3rd in yards allowed to tight ends so they should be able to slow down kittle some like they did in Super Bowl 54 holding him to four receptions at 36 yards.
- The 49ers had some issues on stopping some deep crossing routs as of late. I could see guys like Rashee Rice getting some big plays if Kelce is blanketed.
- The Chiefs have an advantage on special teams. Butker is better than Moody while they are also better at kickoff coverage. The 49ers recently gave up a huge play to the packers.
- The Chiefs have better pass rush numbers than the 49ers, but some of those games were without Chase Young.
Now to the 49ers.
- Let’s start with the offensive coordinator/coach Kyle Shanahan. This man will have a HUGE advantage over Matt Nagy who could have blown the game against the Bills. I feel that Andy Reid also shares some of the lay calling duties and could step in if needed.
- The 49ers run game with Christian McCaffery is tops in the league at 4.8 rushing yards per attempt and number 1 in Rush EPA. They could torch the Chiefs on the ground if the pass game keeps it honest. Now I will say that they stacked the Box against the Ravens and Lamar wasn’t good enough.
- The Chiefs are great against the pass, but the 49ers are also number onw in Dropback EPA with a ton of skill at the Wide Receiver positions. Deebo Samuel is healthy and Brandon Aiyuk is a beast. George Kittle and CMC will get theirs while Kyle Juszcyk is a wildcard. Even with the Chiefs great pass defense, this might prove hard to stop. Especially if Purdy is using his legs.
- Yards per play – The 49ers have a huge .8 net yards per play advantage over the Chiefs.
- Skill positions, the 49ers have better guys that I mentioned earlier than the Chiefs. After Mahomes, I have to go CMC, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle with Kelce right behind Kittle has his game has swiftly taken a step back.
- The 49ers have a red zone advantage on offense and on defense. On defense, they rank 12th in red zone points allowed to the Chiefs at 15th.
- The 49ers have a big turnover advantage being tied for 5th at +10 turnovers per game while the Chiefs are tied for 3rd worst at -11. This is what has gotten their defense by in the tough times. The 9ers are number 1 in forcing interceptions at 22 this season while the Chiefs are 29th at 8. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has also thrown more interceptions at 17 this year to Purdy at 12.
- The 49ers have a large offensive efficiency and explosiveness advantage ranking 3rd in yards per point at 12.7 while the Chiefs are 21st at 16th. Has that improved in the playoffs? Probably some, but this is a pretty wide margin.
Time for the verdict. After looking at everything, I have to think that the 49ers have the main advantages on offense, scheme, turnovers, talent, and in total power while the Chiefs have their main advantages on just total defense and coaching intangibles. I would think that the 49ers defense should be good enough to get this job done as they do some huge things well such as forcing turnovers as well as they tend to toughen up more in the Red zone. I have the 49ers winning this game 27 to 21, but I trust them more on the money line as they haven’t started off games all that well as of late. Take the 49ers to win the game.
49ers ML -130 – 2.5 stars
1st half under 23.5 – 2 stars
