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Kansas City vs Philadelphia -1 O/U 50.5
Well, the league seemed to have gotten what they wanted with Kansas City vs Philadelphia. We have two of the top four teams in the league facing off in the big game! A few narratives for both of these teams remain true. The Eagles had a cake walk getting here getting the seventh seed at home, and playing the 49ers without a quarterback. Kansas City played a very hard fought game with the victory assisted and helped secured courtesy of the Ron Torbert officiating crew (not saying they necessarily would have lost) as well as some fumble luck vs Jacksonville. In saying that, this doesn’t mean that these two teams aren’t great. I have the Eagles as my 2nd best team in my power ratings behind Cincinnati while the Chiefs are tied for third with the 49ers.
Lets look at how these two teams matchup. On the ground, both the Eagles and the Chiefs average 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, but the Chiefs allow 4.5 opponent rushing yards per attempt to the Eagles at 4.6. Slight advantage Chiefs. Through the air, the Chiefs are number one in drop-back EPA to the Eagles at number seven, but the Eagles are number one in opponent drop-back EPA to the Chiefs at number 16. Advantage Eagles. The birds are also number one in opponent passing yards per attempt at 5.4 to the Chiefs at number six at 6.1.
The Chiefs are +1.1 net yards per play to the Eagles at .9, but the Eagles are the more efficient team on offense at 13.4 yards per point to the Chiefs at 14.2. Close to a push if you ask me. The Chiefs have had the harder strength of schedule ranking 9th to the Eagles at 29th, and I have to factor that in some, but I also think that the NFL didn’t have all that much parody this year being that the NFC East was much better than the AFC West as a whole.
What I find is that the Chiefs path to victory is running the ball with Isaiah Pacheco, but as you could see last week, rushing only worked some of the time for a great rush team like the 49ers. Since week 9, the Eagles have improved their opponent rush EPA to 12th while the Chiefs regressed to 20th. Stopping Christian Jones will be a big task for the Birds, but the Eagles have the 6th ranked offensive line.
Even though our NFL 2022 MVP looks ok for now, we still can’t forget the Patrick Mahomes ankle injury. The kid is a warrior, but the Eagles pass rush ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate, number two in pressure rate, and number one in total sacks. I don’t think that the refs are going to allow all the holding that they did during the Bengals vs Chiefs AFC conference game, and especially with a flag throwing official like Carl Cheffers crew who calls the second most amount of penalties compared to the rest of the NFL officials per game. We also have to worry about all of the injuries to the Chiefs secondary with L’Jarious Sneed questionable and LB Willy Gay banged up. WRS Kadarious Tony and JuJu Smith-Schuster who aren’t listed as injured due to the big game, left last week’s conference title game due to injuries as well.
The Eagles are 3rd in offensive EPA and 4th on defensive EPA, the Chiefs are 1st and 15th in those categories respectively. The Eagles are just the more efficient team. With the injuries, the path to the Super Bowl, the metrics that I had just broken down, and the overall offensive and defensive efficiency, I have to go with the Eagles to win this game 27-24. I also think both teams have some nerves during the 1st half and will start out slowly. Take the Birds with a potential hedge back as well as the 1st half under.
Eagles -1 – 3 stars – If the Eagles are up at least 9 points at any point, hedge back at Chiefs +6 or better for 1.5 stars.
1st half under 24.5 -120 – 1.5 stars
