Many of you followed my 2021 NBA season, where I went 207-152 (58%) and hopefully cemented myself as a legit NBA handicapper. I’ve been saying it for a long time and I’ll say it here again– as proud as I am of my NBA record, I think I’m even sharper in the NFL. I’m eager and beyond excited to start officially sharing my NFL plays here at TheOddsBreakers, starting this week and for the rest of the season. Please don’t forget to check out my weekly NFL podcast, Laying the Points with FarleyBets, where me and my fellow handicapper and friend discuss every single NFL game every Thursday throughout the NFL season. I’ll also put out my official Circa-Million five ATS picks every Saturday. With that, and with a lot to look forward to, here and my best Week 1 plays:
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Bucs -7.5 (-110), 1.5 units: The closer we get to this game, the more evident it seems that the Cowboys will really struggle in this contest. By no merit of their own, the Dallas Cowboys and their huge market influence earned them the opening, spotlight TNF game against the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Tom Brady marches his squad into Raymond James Stadium and there are no indications that they’ll be regressing in any regard. In fact, somewhat unsurprisingly at this point, Tampa Bay managed to keep every one of their Super Bowl starters from last year. Mike Evans is even giving away money to ensure they have enough to keep everyone happy. Suddenly the entire Tampa Bay franchise is acting unselfish, collective, and mature– something that’s clearly a part of the all-encompassing Tom-Brady-effect. Through his leadership (not Bruce Arians, although kudos to Bruce for not getting in the way), the Bucs are primed with a tremendous amount of talent on both sides of the ball. They’ll have a particularly strong advantage when they’re on offense against a very shallow Dallas defense.
The Cowboys have a few big things working against them coming into this showdown–
1) There’s already a major loss at offensive lineman with RG Zack Martin out with COVID. Dallas’ offensive line has been their stalwart unit for years and now, after a year where they were forced to mix and match their big boys in 2020, the unit will experience even more inconsistency Thursday night. In case you’re unaware, the Bucs defensive line is loaded and healthy and now they might be an even bigger problem for the Cowboys.
2) Dak’s health is a concern. Dak reported in Hard Knocks and other media appearances that he is 100% ready to go Thursday. I’m inclined to believe Dak, but he still hasn’t played at ALL during the preseason and coming back from ankle/shoulder injuries can’t be easy, let alone the natural rust of not having played football in a long time. Any downgrade to Dak’s performance will spell bad results for his team. We saw how that played out last year.
3) Their defense is STILL a problem: Rookie LB Micah Parson has a ton of upside but it’s clear he’s still in a maturation process. Vander Esch is good, and DeMarcus Lawrence is still a dangerous edge rusher, but who else do they have? This is an very flawed and very shallow roster that should be readily exposed by the greatest quarterback of all time in front of his home crowd.
My sincerest apologies to Cowboys fans but I think this one’s a blowout. The Bucs make one hell of a teaser leg, too.
Cardinals/Titans over 52 (-110), 1.5 units: Remember when Kyler Murray was on track to be the only QB ever to eclipse 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a season last year? That was objectively the case, and we all witnessed the brilliant passing and running ability of the now 3rd year QB. Though clearly undersized, Kyler’s legs seem to move at an impossibly quick pace when he takes off outside the pocket; it reminds me of Christian McCaffrey, actually, which is saying something. Unfortunately, the 4,000/1,000 season never happened. Murray incurred a shoulder injury in Week 11 and never looked the same. The defenses of the NFC West probably had something to do with his late-season limitations, but this year Kyler is healthy and ready to return to form. Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and the Arizona offense go up against a Tennessee defense that was 29th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed last year.
The Titans are aware of their shortcomings on defense and they took steps to make it better. Bud Dupree and Denico Autry were signed to bring more talent on the edge. Tennessee’s first round draft pick was Caleb Farley, the acclaimed cornerback from Virginia Tech. They also added Janoris “Jackrabbit” Jenkins and Kevin Johnson for more depth in the secondary. Shane Bowen was officially promoted to defensive coordinator and looks to take on Tennessee’s many defensive issues. Last year the Titans’ defense could not get off the field on 3rd downs, placing immense pressure on the offense to keep them in games. Now they’re boasting about their defensive effort in the preseason against 2nd and 3rd string units and I just can’t buy into it yet. I see Kyler and a healthy Cardinals’ offense winning most battles Sunday; the Titans’ new-look defense needs more experience together.
And then there’s Tennessee’s offense, which has only gotten better. In fact, you could make a case that the Titans have the best RB and WR combo in the NFL. Julio Jones joins Derrick Henry and AJ Brown to give Ryan Tannehill and the Titans’ offense even more deadly weapons. The Cardinals added some pieces to their defense, including JJ Watt and Malcolm Butler, but this is a huge test on the road against a Titans offense that simply could not be stopped last season. Until proven otherwise, I don’t trust either of these defenses, while there’s a lot to love about both offenses– I’ll take the over.
Giants/Broncos under 42 (-110), 1.5 units: Take it from me– the Giants don’t score a lot of points. I know what you’re thinking, “Chris, you’re just being rough on NYG because they’re your team. They’ll be better this year, you just watch. Golladay, Saquon, let’s go!” I appreciate the votes of confidence in my G-Men but, like a lot of these preseason narratives, I’ll believe it when I see it. The Giants were second only to the lowly Jets in scoring the least amount of points per game last year, averaging a pathetic 17.5. In 2019 they only scored 14 ppg, which is actually shocking, but at least they’re improving. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett adds more of the same to what’s been the Giants’ problem for a very long time: conservative play-calling, predictable 1st and 2nd down runs, and a particularly weak offensive line. Poor Saquon, that’s all I can say.
But for all their woes on offense, the Giants’ defense is something to get excited about. Last year they vastly improved in a ton of categories. The finished 12th in yards allowed, 11th in run yards allowed, and 9th in points allowed in 2020. That’s all pretty impressive considering they were playing behind in most of those games. Their defense was put in vulnerable spots time and time again but they rarely broke, and I think they can have a lot of success against Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos offense. Denver has plenty of talent on offense, that’s for sure, but their limited because of their quarterback play. The Giants have a top 10 secondary, they invested more in their defensive line in free agency and in the draft, and this could be a breakout year for edge rusher Leonard Williams, who ascended quickly last year among New York’s front-seven.
The Broncos will look a LOT healthier on defense this year, too. Bradley Chubb, Von Miller, Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller and new big-name draftee Patrick Surtain II (9th overall, Alabama) will join a loaded Denver defense that should give NYG’s shallow offensive line and predictable offense a ton of problems. This is a deservedly low total and it’s not scaring me away– I’m on the under.
Bears/Rams under 45 (-110), 2 units: The new look Rams will feature long-time Lions QB Matthew Stafford as they host the Bears in the opening Sunday Night game. I’m excited as anyone to watch Sean McVay concoct creative plays to bring out the best in Stafford, and I also think the Rams deserve their Super Bowl hype. McVay finally has an exceptional arm talent under center, one that can stretch the field and feed Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and TE Tyler Higbee, who looked fantastic last year serving in a more prominent role in McVay’s offense. The Rams had one of the best defenses in football last year, limiting teams to a league low 292.9 yards per game and only 19.3 ppg, which was second only to Baltimore. They’ll miss defensive coordinator Brandon Staley as he takes on his new role as head coach for the other LA club, but I don’t see this defense regressing all that much. They just have too much veteran talent. Sometimes I wonder if Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey could take on 2 players each on every play but I digress.
The Bears offense has been pedestrian for quite some time and now they’ll welcome Andy Dalton to… to what? Save the day? That’s not going to happen. I like that they’re keeping rookie QB Justin Fields on the sideline for now– and there’s certainly no use in rolling out a 1st year player against LAR’s defense; that would only challenge the kid’s confidence– but it’s really hard imagining Andy Dalton and a mediocre (at best) Bears offense having much success Sunday night against LAR. David Montgomery can be a solid running back but Allen Robinson II is really Chicago’s only significant weapon. Put simply, I expect the Rams defense to severely limit their output. The Bears will be lucky to score 20 points.
And the Rams offense may not be firing on all cylinders yet either. Stafford and other key starters didn’t take a single snap in the preseason, so it’s reasonable to assume there might be some rust. The Bears defense almost always starts off the first half of the season strong– it’s what led them to a 5-1 record last year– and then they fade off as the season wanes on and as their offense perpetually lets them down. For Bears fans I hope that’s when we see Justin Fields in the future but this isn’t that spot. This game will showcase two of the best front-sevens in all the NFL and I think that’ll be the difference. I love the Rams to win but 7 points is a big line for a week 1 game– I’ll just snag the under.
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