Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Moneyline +118 @Caesars Sportsbook Risk 3 Units To Win 3.54 Units
The Cleveland Browns will host the Cincinnati Bengals week 1 Sunday September 10th and the Browns on paper have a talented roster coming into the season. I expect the Browns to have a good day on the ground and through the air on this Bengals defense, as they lost both Jessie Bates and Von Bell to there defensive backfield in free agency. I grade out the Bengals linebackers as an average unit so they will have there hands full trying to stop Nick Chubb who I think is the best running back in the NFL. The Browns should win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball as they have above average units especially with there key additions on defense in free agency as they got Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Shelby Harris. The Browns defensive pressure rate in 2022 was 18.2% per dropback which ranked 27th in the NFL, but I think Myles Garrett and company will turn that around this year and get after Joe Burrow in this game and force him to make bad decisions. The wrong team is favored in my opinion as I have the Browns as a 2 point favorite according to my power ratings. Take the Browns on the moneyline against the Bengals week 1.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots
New England Patriots +3.5 -110 @BetRivers Sportsbook Risk 3.3 Units To Win 3 Units
The New England Patriots have a home game week 1 against the defending NFC champions the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots bring in Bill O’ Brien to be there new offensive coordinator which has to be an upgrade over last year play caller Matt Patricia who was clueless scheming plays for the Patriots. The Patriots bring in JuJu Smith-Schuster and tight end Mike Gesicki hoping to boost this offense which ranked 24th in EPA. My main handicap for this game will be on the defensive side of the ball where the Patriots have a ceiling to be a top 5 defense this year as they did rank 3rd last year in EPA defense. The Eagles do have a really talented roster coming back this season, but do lose both there OC and DC to head coaching jobs which will be a struggle to the start of the season. I make the Eagles a 1 point favorite against the Patriots in my power ratings and the Patriots are catching +3.5, which I think is to high against an elite defense in the Patriots at home. Take the +3.5 with the Patriots in a tight low scoring defensive game.
