Arizona vs Tampa Bay -4
Let’s make Tampa 3 weeks in a row. If you got this one when I gave it out last week then you hit the +6.5. This play goes on the same factors as we mentioned before. If you got it late then you had a bad beat. Tampa has had the hardest schedule in football while Arizona’s schedule ranks 20th. I have Tampa Bay better than Arizona by 3.25 points on my power ratings so why isn’t there a larger spread based on home field? Well it is because how erratic Jamies Winston has been fumbling and throwing picks. I am less worried about this because it is a home game for Tampa and Arizona ranks last in Interceptions at 2 for the whole year. I know that Bruce Arians left Arizona on good terms but part of me things that he will want to win this one in spite of the bad players that he had on that team for so many years. This is a home run spot for Coach A.
Tampa Bay -4 – 2 star premium shared
LA Rams vs Pittsburgh +4 O/U 44
There is no doubt in my mind that LA has a coaching advantage here and McVeigh is coming off of a bye but it is still a far travel spot for this Rams team. If you look in total efficiency of these teams, even with the slow start for Pittsburgh, they rank 21st in overall DVOA while the Rams rank 11th. This tells me that the Rams are a little bit an above average team and the Steelers are slightly below average. I have to really like the pass rush that Pittsburgh has been putting up. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in the league in Sacks and if there is one way to beat Jared Goff, it is to get to him quick and rattle him. We saw that last year against the Bears. Looking at pure power ratings I have the Rams only a 1 point favorite in Pittsburgh. I think that I will take the value over the 3 here and hope to death that Mike Tomlin won’t screw me on this play.
Pittsburgh Steelers +4 – 2 star premium shared
Seattle vs San Francisco -6 O/U 45.5
So it is well known that the 49ers have a fantastic defense and a great offense. They rank number 1 in opponent yards per game at 271. They also rank number 7 in offense at 390 yards per game. Seattle ranks 4th on offense at 395 and only 25th on defense allowing 380 yards per game. So the over under in this game should be around 47.5 right? WROOOOOOOOOONG. Both of these teams average 57 points per game combined and if you factor in the fact that the 49ers lost their second defensive player in Linebacker Kwon Alexander whome is their second best tackler and I have to think it slows this defense down vs Seattle’s high octane Russell Wilson led offense. The key to this handicap is the plays per game that these teams run. San Francisco Ranks 4th at 68 plays per game while Seattle ranks 8th at 65. I am taking this over and I am not even thinking twice about it.
Seattle vs San Francisco over 45.5 – 3 star premium shared play
