Last 2 Weeks NFL Sides/Totals/Props 16-9 +12.7U
Premium Sides/Totals: 55-52-1 -7.8U
Premium Teasers: 9-6 +5U
Premium Props: 12-7 up 4U
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Atlanta vs Dallas -8 O/U 55
This is a game where two teams are in two different situations. Dallas is coming off of a devastating loss to the Broncos while Atlanta is coming off of a huge win vs their division rival, the New Orleans Saints. Let the let down begin! Even without looking at this situation creatively, Atlanta’s defense ranks 26th in EPA per play while Dallas ranks number 5 on offensive EPA per play even after that Broncos debacle. Dallas also has the advantage rushing the ball at 4.8 yards per attempt while Atlanta allows 4.4. The Cowboys also have a +.5 net yard per play advantage on a much harder schedule. My power ratings has Dallas a 11.5 favorite. When running the efficiency numbers, I have this game Dallas 34 to Atlanta 31. Take dem Boyz to rebound.
Dallas -8 – 3 stars
Detroit vs Pittsburgh -6.5 O/U 42.5
Well this is a game where both teams are also in much different spots here. Pittsburgh is on short rest after coming out of Ref-gate vs the Bears winning by 2 points. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they lost another top wide receiver in Chase Claypool for a while. Detroit hasn’t won a game yet this year but they have played some good teams close and they are coming off of their bye week. Now if you look at the numbers in a normal situation, the Steelers should be beating this Lions team easily, but the Steelers have a terrible offense now with injuries, and that is part of the reason that you see such a low total here. Both my power rating and my advanced metrics have this game around a 10 point spread but this is where the creative handicap comes in. Pittsburgh will be just happy with a win after losing guys to injury while the Lions should play out of their minds for Dan Campbell after the bye. Now for the last update, Big Ben is out meaning backup Mason Rudolph will be in and he is about a 3 point downgrade here. I think that Detroit has an opportunity to win this game outright and I am roaring like the Lions this week.
Detroit +6.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
6 Pt Teaser – Dallas to -2 with Cleveland to +8.5 – 2 stars
