San Francisco vs New Orleans -9.5 O/U 50.5 –
Lots of people might be fading the Saints here after pounding the Tampa Bay Buccanears but it sure won’t be me. This spread went from 9 to 9.5 for a reason and it is due to the 49ers being a shell of themselves without their top guys. This team doesn’t have any pass rush whatsoever and they really do not have any weapons to go to with Kittle being out. Nick Mullens QBR is a dismal 38.6 which is in the range of a Dwayne Haskins and a Sam Darnold. The Saints are finally getting healthy and their defense ranks number 2 against the run. The 49ers will only have the run with so much talent out on offense. The last thing for this handicap is that this Saints team was a little shocked last year when San Fransisco came into Mercedez Benz Superdome and hung 48 points on them. Don’t think that Sean Payton doesn’t hold a grudge here. Taking the saints -9.5
Saints -9.5 – 2 star premium shared
Tampa Bay vs Carolina +4.5 O/U 50.5 –
Tampa Bay was exposed last game against the Saints and I think that Vita Vea injury has gotten to them. It was a windy day yet Drew Breese and company had a field day against this defense. Now Carolina’s defense isn’t great themselves ranking 17th in allowing 5.7 yards per play with Tampa ranking 3rd at 4.9 yards per play but Carolina’s offense is good averaging 6.0 yards per play to Tampa’s 5.5. I think Tom Brady and the Bucs are disappointed in their performance last game and they will play well, but Carolina played very well at Kansas City last week which will help them prepare for this team. They also played Tampa losing 31-17 on the road making this a sort of revenge spot. The Panthers play tough wherever they go and I think this number is too high at 6 and should be more around 3.5.
Carolina +4.5 – 1.5 star premium shared and sprinkle
Houston vs Cleveland -3 O/U 54
This one is a spot play for me. I have the spread about Cleveland -3.3 holding everything the same but the fact that Cleveland is coming off of a bye week is where the upgrade comes in. Cleveland has had a lot of time to figure out how to face DeShawn Watson and the Browns secondary has gotten healthier. Nick Chubb should be back for this team as well giving them some explosive play potential. Cleveland needs this win here because they have taken a lot of criticism as of late. Houston’s defense ranks 3rd worse in total yards allowed at 417 per game. Ralph Michaels from Wagertalk ran a few numbers for me looking at this situaton. Over the last 5 years teams on the road after a road win are only 46.6% ATS. an Away dog off of an away in are a better 48.1% ATS but an away team after an away win facing a team off of a bye week is only 41.2% ATS. Advantage Cleveland. I think the Browns have some upside here.
Cleveland -3 – 2 star premium shared
Refuse To Lose teaser: We are now 6-3 with this teaser: Baltimore to -1 with the Bills to
Bow to the Gambling Gods Parlay 2-5 so far this year. This one pays about 10-1: NCAA ATS – East Carolina +27.5-113, NCAA ML: Tulane -5-108, NC State -345, USC -614, Nevada -928, San Jose State -735, NFL: New Orleans Saints -443, Baltimore Ravens -328
