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Browns vs Ravens -6.5 O/U 38
There is something different about this Ravens team this year. Maybe it’s the offensive coordinator Todd Monkin? Maybe it’s the skill positions? Maybe it’s the fact that they are finally healthy mid-season. How bout, all of the above! This Ravens team is fierce and they are moving the ball with efficiency. The Ravens rank number one is rush EPA. Now you might think that that could be nullified by a browns defense ranking 7th in opponent rush EPA, but many of these yards are from the quarterback which we all know that Lamar is very hard to stop. Now in a perfect world, I might like the Browns at this number, but there are four massive red flags here. First, Browns quarterback DeShawn Watson hasn’t played much this year, and now he has to face the number 1 defense in the league. Second of all, the Browns have cluster injuries to their offensive line losing both starting tackles now with Jedrick Wills joining Jack Conklin on the IR. Dawan Jones is also out this game as well. I do not know how this offensive line will get push today even if Watson isn’t stuck throwing the rock all day. The final red flag is the coaching mismatch. John Harbaugh is heads and tails better than Kevin Stefanski, and he has proven that going 6-2 ATS over the last eight head to head games vs Cleveland. Finally, the Ravens have a massive 1.4 net yards per play advantage over the Browns. If they do not turn the ball over, this game could get ugly. I like the value here.
Ravens -6.5 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Patriots to +8 with the Vikings to +8.5 – 3 stars. Patriots in a do or die type situation. They should at least keep up if not win this game vs a below average Colts team. The Saints do not blow anyone out and you saw that last week getting a 5-0 turnover margin vs the Bears while only winning by 7 points.
