NFL Week 11!
Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville +6 – This game really looks like a huge revenge spot for Pittsburgh. I mean they lost at home to the Jaguars twice last year and were boosted right out of the playoffs. So most people are licking their chops on this one right? WROOOOOONG. How does this whole revenge theory work when Pittsburgh plays New England? Mike Tomlin isn’t a revenge type coach and I think now that the Laveon bell thing is settled, Pittsburgh doesn’t have to prove that they can win without him. On the other hand Doug Marone knows how to play this Pittsburgh team. Pound the ball with Fournette and control the clock. Jacksonville is staring to get healthier and they really are not that bad of a team. They rank 18th in total efficiency while the Steelers rank 11th. I have this game in my algorithm Pittsburgh wining by 3.5 points. I’ll grab the 6.
Jacksonville +6
Houston vs Washington +3
This is also the story of 2 teams. One is trending up and one is trending down. Washington really had a great start this season and surprisingly beat a few big teams like the Panthers and the Packers but what we didn’t see is that both of those teams were pretty banged up when they played the skins and maybe we over valued them. The redskins have been running the football very well until that Falcons game where they lost both of their starting guards and run blockers. Now last week they injured 3 Tackles and their great rookie Geron Christian tore his MCL. Their star tackle Trent Williams may miss another game with a thumb injury. The Redskins may not even have an offensive line this game! The Redskins are coming off a misleading score against the Bucs winning 16-3 but being outgained by over 200 yards. I really like that Keke Coutee should be back and get some target while Josh Norman covers De’Ondre Hopkins
Houston -3 – Take total sacks over for the game as well
Oakland vs Arizona -4
So there are 2 personalities with this Raiders team. The one who wants to play well at home for the Oakland fans that will lose their team in a few years, and the one who gave up on the season when they travel. The Raiders are 1-3 ATS when on the road while Arizona is 3-2 at home. As you saw last game this Cardinals team is improving with their new QB Josh Rosen and they do still have some talent there. Now with Bryan Leftwitch as their offensive coordinator they played pretty well against the Chiefs and came back against the 49ers at home a few weeks back. The simple handicap here is that Oakland is the number 3 worst team against the run and 12th worst against the pass. The Cardinals are actually 4th Best against the pass due to guys like Patrick Peterson and Antoine Bethea. Lastly Oakland ranks dead last in sacks per game at .9 while Arizona ranks 5th at 3.2. Expect Arizona to get things right on Sunday.
Arizona -4
Dallas vs Atlanta -3 is a premium
Teaser – Chiefs to + 9.5 and Carolina vs Detroit Under to 57 – If any team can back door its the Kansas City Chiefs. The Carolina Defense deserves more respect that this high total. I also think the Lions will run the ball more to protect Stafford. Matt Patricia is defensive minded and should be able to fix a few things this week.
