Arizona vs San Francisco -11.5 O/U 45
The over under is very telling in this game to me. It is saying that the 49ers will most likely have some good defense here yet may struggle a bit on offense. The Cardinals are quietly averaging 22.2 points per game while giving up 28 on a very hard schedule. The 49ers average 29 points per game and just give up an average of 14. This tells me the 49ers should score at least 31 and the Cardinals 19. So why the low total? Because of the injuries in this game. The 49ers are missing some key components in their offense in George Kittle and 2 offensive Lineman. Emanual Sanders is also hurt. They are also down a bunch of defensive players which makes me think that the Cardinals should score a few extra points here. The fact that both of these teams have played each other already tells me that there should be no intimidation and the spread should not be that big. My power ratings have this game at around 9.5 points factoring in the injuries and I think with a guy like Kyler Murray, you could see some 4th quarter points being scored. I’ll take the redbirds.
Cardinals +11.5 – 2 star premium shared
Bears vs Rams -6.5 O/U 41.5
So the Bears are obviously challenged on offense but the big thing for me here is that the Bears have not scored many points this year and yet their defense has really been holding up. Even with all of their woes their defense has held opponents to 17 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. The Rams on the other hand have lost their deep threat this game in Brandon Cooks and they also just lost 2 offensive lineman to injury. This tells me that the Bears should be able to get some pressure here and rattle Jared Goff. He doesn’t not play well when Rattled as we called out last week against the Steelers. If you haven’t figured out already, I am liking the under. Being that a desperate 4th quarter Mitch is prone to throwing or fumbling the ball causing a defensive touchdown I like the first half under even better. The bears average only 8 points per game in the first half and the Rams will ease their way into this game.
Under 20.5 – 1.5 star premium shared and under 40 – 1 star play
Atlanta vs Carolina -5.5 O/U 49.5
Have you noticed that since Kyle Allen came aboard that Carolina is 2-0 at home? It’s a good 2-0 because both games vs Jacksonville and Tennessee were not close. Atlanta on the other hand is still celebrating that they beat the Saints and probably forgot that they shouldn’t of saved their coach Dan Quinn’s Job. They also lost their starting running back in Devonta Freeman and I am not sure that 4th string running back Brian Hill can make up for the routs, and the blocking. Atlanta is bad at running the football but good at passing it and this is where the main matchup handicap comes in. Carolina is ranked 3rd in defensive passing efficiency on football outsiders and if they can stop that, then they can win by double digits. Before the Saints upset from the Falcons and the Panthers loss to the huge home field advantage to the Packers, this line was more of a -7.5 My power ratings have it -9.5. Take Carolina -5.5 against the let downs spot.
Carolina -5.5 – 3 star premium shared
