Â
We’re over the halfway point of the NFL season and this is where things get realllllyyy interesting before the playoffs. Steve and I are an illustrious 33-16-1 in Circa – let’s see if we can keep that train rolling this weekend! Don’t miss our official Circa plays post tomorrow morning. For now, here’s my favorite pick of the week!
For my premium picks delivered directly to your inbox every day, click here!
NFL Circa Plays: 33-16-1
NFL ATS Plays: 67-70
NBA ATS Plays: 55-42 (57%), +18 units
Colts/Bills under 49.5 (-115), 2 units: This is a VERY interesting game Sunday between two AFC contenders. The Bills are obviously the more publicly embraced team, heading into this year with high hopes and Super Bowl aspirations. They’ve stumbled in recent weeks but now they’re primed and ready to host the ascending Colts in Buffalo. The Colts started off a lot colder than many of us thought they would. Of course injuries to Carson Wentz, TY Hilton and other key players stifled an already shallow offense at the start of the year, but their defense has been keeping Indy in games. That hasn’t changed since they started improving on both sides of the ball. The Colts are mid-tier this year in points allowed and other standard defensive metrics, but they excel at taking away the ball and not turning it over themselves. That’s something Wentz has clearly worked on and as he settles in to Frank Reich’s system, a system he absolutely preferred in his years prior playing for Philly, Wentz is gaining confidence and making the throws that matter.
One area where the Colts defense needs to improve and improve fast is in the 4th quarter. Overall on the year they have a plus point differential, but in the 4th quarter they’re really letting teams have their way. Indianapolis is allowing 9.6 ppg in the 4th, compared to only 4.9, 5, and 2.6 ppg in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd quarters. That’s not a good metric against a Bills team that loves to score their points at the end of halves (they average 8 ppg and 7.8 ppg in the 2nd and 4th quarters). The Colts’ defense needs to lock down and put forth full effort for an entire 60 minutes on Sunday. The Bills don’t need any help getting to the end-zone and if the Colts relent, the results won’t be favorable for the away team.
The Bills looked like their old selves in Week 10, shutting down the Jets on both sides of the ball and overwhelming them with the potent offense we expect. What most people aren’t talking about is how good they are on defense this year. The Bills lead the NFL in a ton of defensive categories. Here’s just a few of them:
- Points allowed per game
- Yards allowed per game
- Yard allowed per play
- Opponent 3rd down conversion %
- Opponent TDs per game
- Opponent yards per pass
- Turnover margin per game
And they’re top 5 in a bunch of other categories, too. This is a Bills team that should not be taken lightly on either side of the ball, and it’s reasonable to assume that Wentz and the improving Colts offense could easily come to an abrupt halt in this contest.
Lastly, the weather favors an under, too. The game-time forecast says we’ll see cold rain showers with 13-14 mph winds and crisp temperatures of 44-48 degrees. With an improving defense for Indy and arguably the best defense in the NFL geared up for a big AFC matchup in the blustery, tough conditions of Orchard Park, I can only bet on the under.
