Hope everyone has had a great week, looking forward to these games for week 13! Here are two picks I really like and hope going against the grain isn’t too cute this week. Thanks everyone for your support and good luck this week!
Record through week 12: 97-74 +25.42 Units on the season
Eagles -5 (-110)
Minshew mania time! It has been reported Jalen Hurts has been ruled out for tomorrows bout with the Jets. However, I have also seen the Eagles want to see how Hurts is feeling on gameday before making any final decisions about his status. This is a great spot to get value here as the line has moved from 6.5/7 to 5. Regardless of who plays, I absolutely love the Eagles to dominate this game.
This team came out last week flat, made mistakes, and were a shell of themselves. They have the rare opportunity to travel back to Metlife Stadium a week later to redeem their performance. I expect to see an Eagles team like we saw against the Lions earlier this year. Relying heavily on the run game and completely dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The defensive front for Philly should give Zach Wilson too many issues causing him to hurry up throws, make mistakes, and ultimately get hit way too many times. The Eagles simply were embarrassed and underperformed last week. This is a huge bounce back game for them before heading into a bye and I think they coast comfortably. If Hurts does not go Minshew is more than capable as a back up in this league to take over and be in control of this game. LFG Philly! Eagles -5.
Bears +7.5 (-110)
I understand this feels gross and the Cardinals should absolutely dismantle the Bears. HOWEVER, more times than not in this league when bets feel “easy” they rarely yield the results we feel they should. Kyler Murray should be active this week, but Kingsbury referencing their dominate record said they could be “overly cautious with Kyler and Hop.” This could be a tough spot to have a QB come back after not playing for 4 weeks, that is used to training and playing in warm weather controlled environments.
Now tasked with playing in the Windy City in December to get his season going again. Weather is going to be a factor in this game. Cold, rainy, and windy weather could actually make this a game and keep it close. If Bears can lean on David Montgomery and get their run game going, extending drives, and limiting the Cardinals possessions will keep this from getting out of hand. I can’t imagine Kyler coming out in this type of weather/atmosphere and being in “MVP” form as we saw in the beginning of the season. Bears extend drives with their run game, Dalton manages the game like an NFL vet should, and defense contains Kyler Murray not giving up quick strikes to cover +7.5.
Key notes: Public betting % 74/26 on the Cardinals with a key number over 7 getting the hook at 7.5. Remember Vegas doesn’t lose. Fading the public here.
